Buckeye, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

332
FXUS64 KHGX 201750
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Isolated showers/storms mainly near the coast Saturday with
  higher rain chances coming up on Sunday.
- Slight warming trend going into early next week, but we hang
  onto the rain chances.
- Monitoring the potential for a midweek cold front that may bring
  drier air and cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
We`ve officially made it to the final weekend of astronomical
summer! The summer wasn`t all that bad though thanks to nearly daily
chances of rainfall...and we`re expecting more of the same for the
last gasp of summer. Those of you along the coast have already been
getting in on some isolated to scattered shower activity. Later this
afternoon, we could see a few spotty showers/storms develop further
inland but the majority of the activity will remain near the coast
due to greater moisture availability. High temperatures this
afternoon will top out mainly in the low 90s. Onshore flow will
persist going into Sunday, and when you pair that with embedded
shortwaves passing through due to northwesterly flow aloft...we have
even better chances of showers/storms in store!
That northwest flow becomes a bit more amplified on Sunday as a
mid level high over northern Mexico nudges northeastward...that
will come into play in the next paragraph. Rain chances will again
be higher the closer you get to the coast, but we could see some
shower/storms much further inland. Expect another day of high
temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s. In case you`re
curious on the overnight temperatures, we`ll only bottom out in
the low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday night...and those low
temperatures will be on an upward trend going into next week.
Speaking of next week, the previously mentioned mid level high will
continue building into western/central Texas leading to a slight
warming trend through Tuesday. We`ll see high temperatures reach the
mid 90s on Tuesday paired with low temperatures in the mid to upper
70s. Southeast Texas should remain just east enough of the mid level
high to prevent subsidence from hindering rain chances too much, so
expect rain chances to prevail through at least midweek. Beyond
midweek, things get a bit uncertain. Latest deterministic runs of
the GFS and Euro show an upper level low drifting through the
Central Plains around midweek, which pushes a cold front through the
area either Wednesday or Thursday. Moisture convergence ahead of the
boundary would lead to better chances of rainfall ahead of and along
the frontal boundary...whenever it decides to push through. Drier
air should push through in the wake of this front leading to lower
rain chances as well as lower temperatures. Midweek and beyond,
we`re looking at temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for highs
and mid 60s to low 70s for lows. Since there is a bit of uncertainty
on FROPA timing, let`s take a look at the temperature forecast
probabilistically!
We`ll focus on College Station (Howdy Ags!), Houston, and Galveston
for this. In terms of seeing low temperatures at or below 70F, all
three sites start with a near 0% probability through Wednesday
night. Thursday night and onward, College Station is around or above
70%, Houston stands at around a 40% probability, and Galveston (as
you can imagine) remains below a 10% probability.
Next we`ll take a look at probabilities for high temperatures at or
below 90F. Galveston won`t be included since it`s a 90+%
probability daily even without the front. For Aggieland, the
probabilities begin to rise on Wednesday and peaks with 60+% through
the end of the work week. Probabilities for Houston begin to rise on
Wednesday as well and peaks on Thursday around 60% and stays near
there through the end of the work week. This is just to show that
there is a general trend for cooler conditions beyond midweek, but
it`s not entirely a slam dunk at the moment. We`ll continue to watch
trends, but it would be nice to enjoy some cooler air near the
start of the fall season...did ya hear that, Mother Nature?!
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated to widely scattered shra/tsra will continue through the
afternoon before diminishing this evening. Winds generally SE,
becoming light and variable overnight. Areas of MVFR vis/cigs may
develop after 09Z, especially north of IAH. For now, we are going
with low-end VFR in our northern TAFs. Chance of isolated to
widely scattered shra increases near the coast by dawn. Chance of
shra/tsra increases farther inland as tomorrow morning
progresses.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly winds and 2 to 4
foot seas will prevail going into early next week. Winds become
southwesterly to westerly around midweek as a frontal boundary
approaches. Northerly flow is expected towards the end of the work
week. Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least
midweek.
Mariners should be advised that a couple of waterspouts were
reported earlier today (Saturday) in Galveston Bay. Model
guidance depicts some potential for showers/storms paralleling the
coastline as early as Sunday morning, so the waterspout potential
carries on into Sunday.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  92  72  93 /   0  20   0  20
Houston (IAH)  74  90  75  91 /  10  50  10  50
Galveston (GLS)  79  87  80  88 /  40  60  40  50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion