Bristol, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

481
FXUS63 KIWX 281827
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some patchy fog possible early Monday morning.
- Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of the
  week.
- Highs in the low to mid 80s persist into Tuesday with slight
  cooling for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Stagnant pattern will continue with warm and dry conditions through
the middle of the work week. An upper level ridge will continue to
build across the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley tonight, with
little change in long wave ridging position over the next few days.
Remnants of a weak shallow frontal boundary linger across northern
Indiana today, with sfc dew points a bit higher in comparison to
yesterday due to some minor pooling along this old frontal boundary.
Another night of good radiational cooling conditions combined with
these slightly higher crossover temperatures may be more
supportive of patchy fog development early Monday morning. Weak
easterly flow from the eastern Great Lakes could maximize this
potential across extreme northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio.
No significant changes made to the max temperature forecast for
Monday with a similar low level airmass in place. Full
insolation is expected once again as a relatively warm 850-700
mb layer associated with the mid/upper level ridging should
largely discourage diurnal cu formation.
Slightly cooler conditions are expected by Wednesday and Thursday
with a better chance of some high clouds spilling over the ridge by
this time. A larger scale negative upper height anomaly will also be
sinking across southeast Canada which should allow for some weak low
level CAA across the region via easterly low level flow.
For Friday into the weekend, highs into the lower 80s expected
once again as low level winds veer more southerly in response
to a longwave trough taking shape across western CONUS. It still
appears as though any lead short wave kicking out of this
longwave trough will only act to slightly dampen the upper
ridging in place. This should allow dry conditions to be
maintained through the weekend.
For late weekend into early next week, large scale pattern should
tend to favor continued dampening of upper level ridge with better
chances of frontal passage heading into the Day 8-9 timeframe.
However, given large scale anticyclonic shear across northern CONUS,
this pattern would tend to favor slow moving, positively-tiled
northern stream upper trough evolution which could slow associated
frontal boundary a bit. Some zone of favored low level moisture
transport could develop during early portions of next week from
Lower MS Valley into Ohio Rvr Valley, but confidence low at
this time in any precip chances through the Day 9 timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Upper ridging will continue to promote mainly clear skies, light
winds and VFR conditions through the TAF cycle and beyond.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Steinwedel

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion