Bristers, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS64 KJAN 211806
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
106 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Tonight through Tuesday...Troughing aloft will continue increasing
across the region overnight into Monday.  However come Tuesday, flow
across Lower Mississippi River Valley will become more zonal ahead
of a low pressure system moving east across the central plains
states.  It`ll be this low that brings us some much needed rainfall
come mid/late this week.
Until then, continued hot humid conditions will persist across the
forecast area through Tuesday.  Highs each afternoon will continue
to top out in the middle 90s, with lows from the mid 60s to lower
70s.  The subtle increase in moisture each day will aid in isolated
to scattered showers and storms developing across the area,
primarily during the afternoon hours, with a stray storm or two
intense enough to produce some gusty winds.  However, some small
rain chances will linger late tonight across the Highway 82
corridor, as a disturbance aloft moves east across the Mid-South
region during the overnight hours.  Aside from this, convection that
develops during the afternoon will dissipate after sunset as daytime
heating wanes. /19/
Wednesday through Saturday...The forecast gets more interesting
during the middle of the week.  Global models continue to indicate
that a shortwave trough will amplify and dig southward in the
Mississippi Valley region. As this happens and deep layer flow
increases, a developing surface wave and strengthening warm sector
will lower pressures over the forecast area Wednesday. This could
result in a threat for strong to marginally severe multicell
clusters and perhaps a few supercells if the cold frontal timing and
storm initiation coincide with peak heating. SPC has included
northwest portions of the forecast area in a marginal severe risk
for Tue night, and can imagine this threat will be extended into
Wednesday and expanded southeast with future outlooks assuming there
are no significant changes in the guidance. We have included a
similar area in our hazard graphics for local messaging.
Going into late week, the trough should slowly shift east, which
could prolong the potential for beneficial rainfall over eastern
portions of the area as cyclonic flow lingers. By the weekend,
conditions look dry milder on the backside of the trough with
temperatures near typical values for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
All TAF sites are VFR this afternoon and this will continue
at most sites through the period. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, which could briefly bring
MVFR/IFR conditions this afternoon./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  94  69  93 /  10  10   0  10
Meridian      67  93  67  93 /  20  10   0  10
Vicksburg     69  94  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   69  95  68  94 /  10  10   0  10
Natchez       68  94  68  93 /  10  20   0  20
Greenville    69  93  71  93 /  20  10  10  30
Greenwood     69  94  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
/15

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion