Braham, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

467
FXUS63 KMPX 192355
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and weak storms on and off throughout the rest
  of today.
- Daily shower chances continue through the weekend, followed by
  seasonal and dry weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Visible satellite showing a well developed low which shrouds much of
the northern plains in cloud cover this afternoon. Beneath all of
this cloud cover are bands of moderate rain showers and a few
pockets of thunder. Periods of rain and thunder can be expected over
the next several hours across much of central and southern MN and
western WI. Overall, the convective environment does look to be
shallow given MLCAPE values generally less than 500 J/kg meaning
widespread thunder is not expected. A few brief periods of heavy
rainfall may occur given PWATs ranging near 1.3 inches.
Additionally, latest RAP guidance continues to show enough low-level
directional shear coupled with 1kft LCLs, which could potentially
develop a few cold-air funnels near the surface low in west central
Minnesota. As this low pressure continues to meander north-
northeastward, a dry slot should temporarily suppress some cloud
cover and PoPs gradually from southeast to northwest overnight.
As we enter this weekend, the troughing pattern zonally elongates.
Residual lobes of vorticity look to dance around the broader
troughing pattern through at least Saturday afternoon which will
once again produce another round of diurnal precip. As of now, the
best concentration of precip coverage looks to be aimed across north-
central MN over to western WI. Storm total QPF through Saturday
night looks to range between a half inch to three quarters of an
inch. Areas south and west of the MN River Valley should see closer
to a quarter of an inch or less with a few localized higher amounts
sprinkled in. Sunday through Tuesday will maintain diurnal chances
of precip although not as expansive in coverage as we slowly
transition to northerly flow.
No significant swings in temperatures are expected over the next
several days as the airmass is not changing much day to day. Highs
generally expected to range within the upper 60s to low 70s and lows
in the 50s are expected across the area. Winds are also expected to
be light through the period generally 10kts or less. Come the middle
of next week, high pressure looks to take hold across the northern
CONUS which should keep precip chances well to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Bands of showers and thunderstorms continue to spin over
Minnesota/western Wisconsin this evening. The greatest coverage
of rain will transition east over RNH/EAU over the next few
hours. Also, we do anticipate the threat of thunder will diminish
will continued loss of daytime heating. Focus will shift to IFR
or low cigs/visibility after midnight. Still some uncertainty
in whether it`s more of a low stratus scenario of if we will see
areas of dense fog development. Followed LAMP trends and
included TEMPO`s for visibility reductions at AXN, STC, and EAU
where the signal is the greatest. Cigs/vis improve in the first
few hours after daybreak Saturday. Southerly winds will sustain
between 5-10kts as the slow moving upper-low continues to
meander eastward. Should see another round of scattered showers
and storms develop early in the the afternoon. The best chance
for impacts will be over the eastern MN and western WI
terminals.
KMSP...Removed mention of thunder from the TAF to open the 00z
period. We`ll keep the chance of VFR showers around through
about 3z, then should trend dry overnight. Cigs trend MVFR
overnight, then improve to VFR Saturday morning. PROB30
continues Saturday afternoon for another round of -TSRA during
the period of peak daytime heating.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc MVFR/-TSRA, mainly P.M. Wind W 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind variable 5 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Strus

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion