Borup, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

639
FXUS63 KFGF 211950
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
250 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer then average through the week with dry weather
  expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper low rotating over our eastern counties will continue to
slowly drift eastward towards Lake Superior tonight. Still
getting some decent showers and even a few thunderstorms
developing across our eastern counties. Fortunately, surface
vorticity is much less than yesterday so think the main impacts
will be isolated lightning strikes and brief rain rather than
funnels. Some of the cumulus on the back side of the upper low
will dissipate later this evening, so at least part of the CWA
will see some clearing overnight. Fog development could again be
an issue, with the HREF showing 50 to 60 percent chance for some
spots to drop below half a mile in visibility, particularly
along our southern and eastern border. Still too soon to tell
exactly where and how dense fog will be, so just kept mention
going with no SPS or headlines.
The upper low will exit off to the east into the Great Lakes
tomorrow, with a secondary southern branch low extending with a
positive tilt well to our southwest. Blocking ridge sets up from
the Rockies into the Northern Plains, moving slightly eastward
towards the end of the work week. Ensembles still showing a
warmer than average signal for temperature, so highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s continue. Dry conditions with ridging
shifting to northwesterly flow. Several of the ensemble members
bring a shortwave into Ontario but all have the forcing too far
north to bring us much precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions at KDVL and KFAR, with stratocu hanging around at
KGFK and the MN airports. Although there is currently a hole
over the KTVF area expecting that to fill in. Lingering showers
and stratocu will continue into the afternoon for the east before
clearing out this evening for all sites. Fog formation is
possible, with models most consistent for KBJI so have vis going
down to 1SM for now. Could see some further west also but not as
confident. All sites should return to VFR by the end of the
period. Winds will remain light and mostly variable, with some
airports steadying out of the southeast.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion