Borger, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

058
FXUS64 KAMA 301724
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Dry conditions with temperatures above average are expected
  through this upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Clear skies are depicted by visible satellite imagery across the
Panhandles at the time of this writing. Temperatures will warm up
a few degrees when compared to yesterday to near average as weak
troughing continues to prevail across the region. Southerly to
southwesterly winds around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 will
remain in place across the Panhandles this afternoon as leeside
low pressure tightens the surface pressure gradient over the
Plains. Upper level ridging starts to develop tomorrow and WAA
will occur in the lower levels bringing temperatures up into the
mid to upper 80s with a few locations potentially hitting the 90s
for tomorrow. Winds should be a bit lighter tomorrow as surface
low pressure moves over portions of the region during the daytime
hours. Dry conditions will persist through at least Wednesday
night.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A ridging pattern is forecast to remain in place across much of the
central and eastern US through the remainder of this work week. This
pattern typically leads to warmer than average temperatures and dry
conditions for the Panhandles and that appears to be the case with
this set-up. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low
90s through at least Saturday if not Sunday. During this same time
frame, a trough will move onshore from the Pacific and is forecast
to move east towards the Rockies by Saturday. The latest computer
models are in good agreement with the base of the trough lifting
northeast as it approaches the Four Corners region by Friday into
Saturday. This would lead to the Panhandles being dry slotted by
this system and will lead to an increase in wind speeds. Breezy
south to southwest winds will likely prevail on Friday and
Saturday with potential gusts upwards of 30-40 mph.
Tremendous model uncertainty begins on Sunday through the rest of
this forecast period. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates
a cold front should trek southward across the Plains on Sunday, but
just how far south and how strong that front is are the biggest
question marks. In addition to that, just how long does the cooler
air linger across the region is another area of uncertainty. The
30/00z LREF forecast data set indicates this well, with a large
temperature spread between the 10th and 90th percentile for highs
beginning Monday. That spread is upwards of 15-20 degrees through
the middle of next week. Even with there being a large high
temperature range, the consensus right now in the guidance is
that highs will remain near average but that certainly can change
as we get closer to the next work week.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Wind gusts up
to 20-25 kts are expected through 00z and then winds should
decrease through the remainder of this TAF cycle. Winds will
mainly be out of the south, but will become southwesterly towards
the end of this TAF issuance.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion