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Bogata, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

046
FXUS64 KSHV 241829
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

- Lingering showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity through the remainder of today into this evening.

- Much cooler temperatures expected through the weekend with overnight lows in the mid 50s to the lower to middle 60s each night.

- From Thursday onward, dry conditions expected areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Surface frontal boundary currently across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma to linger across the region today. Continued rain chances expected as the 850 mb trough translates east across the region. Conditions to gradually improve late this afternoon into the evening as the upper-trough and cold front exit the region to the east.

Front to linger across the Mississippi River into southeast Louisiana on Thursday into Thursday night with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible across north Louisiana and south Arkansas during the day into the early evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail elsewhere.

Upper-trough responsible for ongoing convection to deepen into a closed low which will linger across the Ohio River Valley providing northwest flow areawide through the weekend into early next week resulting in dry conditions each day.

A break in the heat is expected through the weekend into early next week as a cooler surface airmass becomes established across the ArkLaTex. Temperatures to range from highs in the mid 80s to lows in the mid to upper 50s north to the low to mid 60s across east Texas and north Louisiana each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, fropa pushing stout convection E down I-20 toward KMLU. KSHV G32KT, but stronger SQ pockets 40-50KT VC. VSBY to 1/2SM in +TSRA. For now Tempos active for KELD/KMLU/KLFK until 22Z. Cool air is deep with +/-RA ending by 00Z. Pattern improves to VFR this aftn/eve from W to E, but some IFR/MVFR possible again toward daybreak w/ enough NW wind to limit FG to BR. TS just ended at KGGG w/ NW10-20KT to round out the day. Fallish Chamber of Commerce days await & through the weekend. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1032 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 85 65 85 / 20 10 10 0 MLU 69 86 65 85 / 50 20 10 0 DEQ 62 81 59 84 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 65 84 63 86 / 0 10 0 0 ELD 63 83 60 83 / 20 20 0 0 TYR 65 83 63 84 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 65 83 63 84 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 67 87 64 86 / 40 10 0 0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion

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