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Blumenthal, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS64 KEWX 241928
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon into tonight mainly from the coastal plains westward into portions of the Rio Grande plains.

- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather return from Thursday into the middle of next week.

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.SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... A cold front and upper level disturbances helped bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of Llano and Burnet counties this morning. Radar and gauge data shows some fairly widespread 1/2"-1.5" amounts generally west of 281 and north of the Llano River. Some localized amounts of 2.5"-3" were also observed a few miles northwest of Lake Buchanan.

As the front progressed southward into a more stable air mass, convection generally began to dissipate. However, with the front now pushing into the Highway 90 corridor and encountering daytime heating, some new convection is noted from near the west end of Lake Amistad to Uvalde to San Antonio to Schulenburg. While we have seen some slight drying in the low-levels behind the front across portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, atmospheric moisture levels (precipitable water) behind the boundary are still in the 1.5-2.0" range, with some amounts likely closer to 2.5" near the middle Texas coast. This moisture combined with some upper level disturbances embedded in the northwest flow aloft and the cold front will lead to additional rain chances this afternoon and tonight. A recent update to the Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC now places a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) over the coastal plains back westward to near the Rio Grande. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) remains in place for most of the remainder of south central Texas. Current trends and hi-res guidance do tend to favor areas generally along and south of an Eagle Pass to Pleasanton to La Grange line for higher rainfall chances through tonight. Areas along and south of the above mentioned locations could see some fairly widespread 1-2" amounts with higher amounts up to near 4".

Rain chances will linger into the daytime hours on Thursday given northwest flow aloft and adequate moisture levels. By late afternoon, most areas should remain dry as we do finally start to see some much drier air moving in from the northwest. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s on Thursday.

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.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... Mid and upper level ridging will briefly build into the region this weekend as an upper low drops into southern California. With this pattern, the forecast for the remainder of the week and into early next week is expected to remain dry with highs at or just above normal and overnight lows near or slightly below normal. The upper low over southern California is expected to open into a trough and begin moving eastward as a much larger upper trough develops farther north over the Eastern Pacific. We could see enough moisture across the Rio Grande and into the coastal plains for some low rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.

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.AVIATION (18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... A rather tricky forecast this afternoon as a cold front works southward through the region. AUS has already seen a wind shift to 360, but SAT and SSF are still awaiting the northerly shift along with DRT. Breezy north to northeasterly winds of 12-17 kts are expected behind the FROPA for a few hours before winds relax a bit more overnight. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage leads to PROB30 groups being utilized at AUS, SAT, and SSF, with two potential rounds at SAT and SSF. MVFR ceilings should remain out of the forecast, but there is an outside shot at a return to MVFR if clearing develops quicker after 09Z at SAT and SSF. Otherwise, expect VFR through the period and a couple chances at thunderstorms at area terminals. DRT has higher confidence in overnight convection developing within some moist ascent behind the front. Rapid clearing is expected after 12Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 91 67 92 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 90 63 91 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 91 64 92 / 50 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 86 62 88 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 92 69 92 / 70 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 88 61 89 / 30 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 91 64 92 / 70 30 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 92 63 92 / 50 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 89 62 90 / 50 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 90 69 91 / 50 30 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 91 69 93 / 70 40 0 0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Platt LONG TERM...Platt AVIATION...MMM

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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