Blumenthal, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS64 KEWX 241928
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon into tonight
  mainly from the coastal plains westward into portions of the
  Rio Grande plains.
- Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry weather return from
  Thursday into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A cold front and upper level disturbances helped bring some
beneficial rainfall to portions of Llano and Burnet counties
this morning. Radar and gauge data shows some fairly widespread
1/2"-1.5" amounts generally west of 281 and north of the Llano
River. Some localized amounts of 2.5"-3" were also observed a
few miles northwest of Lake Buchanan.
As the front progressed southward into a more stable air mass,
convection generally began to dissipate. However, with the front
now pushing into the Highway 90 corridor and encountering
daytime heating, some new convection is noted from near the west
end of Lake Amistad to Uvalde to San Antonio to Schulenburg.
While we have seen some slight drying in the low-levels behind
the front across portions of the Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau, atmospheric moisture levels (precipitable
water) behind the boundary are still in the 1.5-2.0" range, with
some amounts likely closer to 2.5" near the middle Texas coast.
This moisture combined with some upper level disturbances
embedded in the northwest flow aloft and the cold front will
lead to additional rain chances this afternoon and tonight. A
recent update to the Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC now
places a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) over the coastal plains back
westward to near the Rio Grande. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4)
remains in place for most of the remainder of south central
Texas. Current trends and hi-res guidance do tend to favor areas
generally along and south of an Eagle Pass to Pleasanton to La
Grange line for higher rainfall chances through tonight. Areas
along and south of the above mentioned locations could see some
fairly widespread 1-2" amounts with higher amounts up to near
4".
Rain chances will linger into the daytime hours on Thursday
given northwest flow aloft and adequate moisture levels. By
late afternoon, most areas should remain dry as we do finally
start to see some much drier air moving in from the northwest.
High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s on
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Mid and upper level ridging will briefly build into the region
this weekend as an upper low drops into southern California.
With this pattern, the forecast for the remainder of the week
and into early next week is expected to remain dry with highs
at or just above normal and overnight lows near or slightly
below normal. The upper low over southern California is expected
to open into a trough and begin moving eastward as a much larger
upper trough develops farther north over the Eastern Pacific. We
could see enough moisture across the Rio Grande and into the
coastal plains for some low rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A rather tricky forecast this afternoon as a cold front works
southward through the region. AUS has already seen a wind shift to
360, but SAT and SSF are still awaiting the northerly shift along
with DRT. Breezy north to northeasterly winds of 12-17 kts are
expected behind the FROPA for a few hours before winds relax a bit
more overnight. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage leads to
PROB30 groups being utilized at AUS, SAT, and SSF, with two
potential rounds at SAT and SSF. MVFR ceilings should remain out of
the forecast, but there is an outside shot at a return to MVFR if
clearing develops quicker after 09Z at SAT and SSF. Otherwise,
expect VFR through the period and a couple chances at thunderstorms
at area terminals. DRT has higher confidence in overnight convection
developing within some moist ascent behind the front. Rapid clearing
is expected after 12Z Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  91  67  92 /  40  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  90  63  91 /  40  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  91  64  92 /  50  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            67  86  62  88 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  92  69  92 /  70  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  88  61  89 /  30   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70  91  64  92 /  70  30   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  92  63  92 /  50  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  89  62  90 /  50  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  90  69  91 /  50  30   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  91  69  93 /  70  40   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM...Platt
AVIATION...MMM

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion