Blue Lake, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS64 KLCH 051751
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1251 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances will increase through Monday as a weak surface low
  and boundary move inland.
- A weak cold front will move into the area later in the week
  bringing drier conditions again by Thursday. This will reduce
  rain chances while daytime highs will remain on the warm side
  and above normal
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A broad upper level weakness/shear axis is located across the
Gulf coast. Under this is a surface boundary that extends just off
the northern Gulf coast with a weak surface low on the west side
of the boundary off the south central Louisiana coast. The surface
low is not expected to become tropical with upper level shear and
it remaining attached to the frontal system.
These features will slowly move to the northwest and inland along
the Texas and southern Louisiana coast on Monday. These features
will bring an increase in moisture and lift that is expected to
help bring an increase in scattered shower activity, especially
during the daytime hours through Monday. The deeper Gulf moisture
is expected to stay east of the forecast area, so widespread high
rainfall amounts are not expected.
By Tuesday, the broad weakness and low pressure system is expected
to wash out, that will help to lower rain chances somewhat.
Temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side and above
climo norms.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
An upper level ridge will build over the forecast area from the
west, while an upper level trough will form along the eastern US.
The result will be a northwest flow that will help push a weak
cold front across the forecast area on Thursday.
There may be a small chance for showers on Wednesday with modest
moisture ahead of the frontal system. However, rain chances should
decrease by Thursday through the remainder of the period as a dry
continental air mass filters in behind the front.
The drier air mass will bring lower humidity and slightly cooler
night time temperatures. However, daytime temperatures will remain
on the very warm side and above climo norms.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Moisture wrapping around a broad weak low over the northwest Gulf
will bring an increase in cloud cover and potential for shower
activity for the remainder of the afternoon. MVFR ceilings can be
expected at times especially for KLFT/KARA along with showers or
storms in the vicinity.
Any shower activity is expected to dissipate by sunset. Overnight,
low level moisture will likely be trapped underneath an inversion
provided by a weak boundary along the Louisiana coast. MVFR
ceilings are expected at the Louisiana terminals after 06/06z.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Moderate easterly winds and medium seas will decrease through the
night as the gradient between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
and low pressure over the northwest Gulf lessens. A brief period
of light southerly winds will occur on Monday as the low pressure
system moves into the Texas coast. Moderate offshore winds are
expected to return later in the week as a weak cold front moves
into the Gulf.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A weak surface low and boundary will move inland by Monday. This
system will help increase moisture and bring a chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms. Relative humidity values on Monday will
be elevated with min afternoon values above 60 percent. Higher low
level moisture will hang around into Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  87  69  90 /  40  50  20  20
LCH  71  88  72  89 /  30  40  20  30
LFT  72  86  72  89 /  50  50  10  30
BPT  71  88  72  90 /  20  20  20  30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion