Blanchard, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

609
FXUS63 KOAX 010906
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
406 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
  highs generally in the 80s.
- Dry weather is expected to persist throughout the remainder of
  the work week.
- A pattern change is expected this weekend, bringing the return
  of at least low (10-30%) precipitation chances and gradually
  cooling temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High clouds are draped across most of the area this morning in
response to a shortwave moving through the southwesterly flow
rounding the upper ridge centered over the Chicago metro.
A separate area of cloud cover developing over south-central
Nebraska has a convective look to it and is glaciating this
morning which has lead to some detected lightning. This ribbon
of t-showers, stretching north to south, will meander east this
morning and bring 20-40% PoPs to parts of northeast Nebraska
before noon then should dissipate. Some CAMs try reinvigorate
the precip after it crosses the Missouri River this afternoon,
but PoPs in western Iowa remain under 15%. There will be some
decent reports of 1/2" of rain in some spots, but mostly just
west of this forecast area. The bulk of this forecast area will
remain dry with the only perceptible change in the weather will
be the area of increased cloud cover passing overhead.
After taking a step back yesterday, temps will climb again today
with highs mostly in the mid-80s and even warmer numbers are
anticipated for Thursday and Friday as the first H5 ridge pushes
east and falls apart as another builds in its place. The
thermal ridge pushing overhead on Friday brings anomalously warm
temps (90+ percentile) through the lower half of the
atmosphere. Have pushed the NBM`s solution a couple of degrees
warmer which left most locations with a forecast max T near 90.
.THE WEEKEND...
A cutoff low off the California coast on Friday opens up and
fills in as it streaks west. By the time it finds its way to
the mid- Missouri River valley on Saturday night, it will have
a negative tilt and will bring the best chance of precip the
area`s seen in days. Unfortunately, it`s looking like best
chances (80%) are just northwest of here (20%). Ahead of the
system, breezy southerly winds will impact Saturday football
games with wind gusts up to 40 mph.
The system drags a cold front through the area on Saturday
night. By Monday, highs will be near seasonal highs of 70F.
The best chance of precip (40% MON and 30% TUE) is expected
early next week when the stalled front south of the area will
bring regular chances of precip thanks to isentropic upglide
over the cooler air in place over the Corn Belt.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. A few showers
and isolated storms may develop over northeast Nebraska after
12z, but current thinking is that these should stay northwest of
KOFK. Winds will be breezy from the south southeast with gusts
around 20-25 kts after 16z, subsiding after 00z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS oax Office Area Forecast Discussion