Blakemore, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

540
FXUS64 KLZK 212330
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
-Strong to severe storms will be possible across northern Arkansas
 overnight through Sunday morning.
-Additional rounds of widespread rain are likely late Sunday
 evening through Wednesday across much of the state.
-Hot and humid conditions will continue today, lasting through
 early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
To begin the period, a somewhat active weather pattern is expected
over the next several days as multiple shortwaves move across the
state. With it comes the chance for showers, thunderstorms, and
cooler temperatures (later in the week). The best chance for rain
through the period will be Monday through Wednesday morning. While
widespread severe is not expected, some isolated storms could
produce severe hail and/or wind gusts.
As of this forecast package, showers and thunderstorms continue to
move across northern locations bringing the chance for small hail
and gusty winds. With that said, the bigger threat could be flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall and training thunderstorms.
As with any scattered convection, exact totals depend where storms
set up. Northern Arkansas will likely see the most in the way of
rain accumulations with two to four inches possible through
Wednesday. Lesser amounts are expected the further south you go
across the state with one to three inches possible across central
locations and up to an inch for southern locations. Higher
accumulations will be possible for areas with consistent storms or
training.
Temperatures are expected to be average to above average through
much of the period with high temperatures in the lower 80s (mainly
northern locations) to lower 90s and overnight low temperatures
dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s across the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The main challenge over the next 24 hours for aviation is the
timing of thunderstorms. Guidance is uncertain exactly how the
nocturnal storms will evolve with multiple solutions in place for
southern and central Arkansas. Northern Arkansas has more
certainty that they will see thunder this evening and then another
chance for storms late tomorrow morning into the overnight hours.
Central and southern Arkansas`s chances of storms has increased in
the last six hours as guidance has increased storm chances late
tomorrow morning along the nose of a LLJ that will form up from
TX/LA with convergence right over the Ouachita Mtn area. This will
increase chances of storms forming along that area late in the
morning, moving east through the TAF sites. LIT/PBF seem to be
between the two areas of storms, but they can`t be ruled out so a
Prob 30 was utilized to show that potential timing. MVFR ceilings
are possible overnight near that LLJ with that moisture pushing up
from the south. The timing will be similar to the TS timing of
late morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  86  67  82 /  40  60  60  80
Camden AR         68  89  70  91 /  10  30  10  40
Harrison AR       65  81  65  76 /  50  70  70  80
Hot Springs AR    68  87  69  88 /  20  40  30  60
Little Rock   AR  70  87  71  85 /  20  40  40  60
Monticello AR     70  92  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
Mount Ida AR      68  86  69  87 /  20  50  40  60
Mountain Home AR  66  83  65  78 /  40  70  60  80
Newport AR        69  87  69  82 /  40  50  60  70
Pine Bluff AR     69  90  70  90 /  20  20  20  40
Russellville AR   69  86  69  84 /  30  60  50  70
Searcy AR         68  87  68  85 /  30  50  60  70
Stuttgart AR      69  89  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...75

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion