Blackwater, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

331
FXUS64 KMRX 170532 AAA
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
132 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Messages:
1. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist into next week.
2. Dry conditions expected through the weekend, with only low rain
chances coming toward the middle of next week.
Discussion:
A closed low near the Chesapeake Bay will start to track farther
east today and tomorrow, with a ridge over the MS Valley region. A
shortwave trough rotating around the low that brought showers/storms
yesterday will be to our south and east today, and we will have a
dry northerly flow and stable conditions through the column. This
pattern will be pretty static through the rest of the week, with the
ridge building slightly toward the east. Under the building ridge,
temperatures will be well above normal, with highs mainly in the 80s
to near 90 in southern sections.
The ridge loosens its grip on the area over the weekend as a trough
over the northern Plains approaches the Great Lakes and OH Valley.
However, we will likely remain dry through the weekend as the
pattern will not have good moisture flux off the Gulf due to an E-W
850 mb ridge axis across AL/GA/SC. Late in this forecast period,
there may be a closed low that drops into the Great Lakes/OH Valley
region that could bring some better forcing and moisture advection
our way, but the NBM only has slight chance PoPs for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Will leave that solution in the forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The main aviation concern for this period will be whether fog will
develop toward sunrise. At the moment, the cloud cover and
temp/dewpoint spread of 7-9 degrees do not suggeest favorable fog
conditions, but that could change quickly if the cloud cover clears
out. Satellite trends suggest high/midlevel clouds will remain
broken through the night, and maybe overcast at TRI. Forecast
confidence is low, so the previous forecast of MVFR vis at TYS
and TRI will be continued until conditions indicate otherwise.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  63  89  62 /  10  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       84  60  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  56  83  55 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion