Birch, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

336
FXUS63 KFGF 021438
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record breaking warmth through Saturday.
- Level 1 out of 5 risk of severe late Saturday afternoon and
  evening. Saturday night into Sunday potential for heavy rain
  parts of eastern ND into northwestern Minnesota.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Quiet this morning, under mostly sunny skies. Winds have slowly
been shifting from the south to a more westerly direction.
Forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 656 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Scattered mid clouds far northern RRV and far NW MN into
Manitoba. Otherwise clear. Weak surface trough still poised to
move east today but winds on either side are quite light south
ahead of it 5 kts and west or southwest behind it at 5 kts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...Synopsis...
Slow moving surface trough oriented northeast to southwest will
move east thru the area today...being near a Bemidji to Fergus
Falls line at 21z. Band of mid clouds from Devils Lake to
Winnipeg moving northeast and mainly associated with 500 mb
short wave moving east thru Manitoba. Otherwise skies clear
across the area. Low level jet is no more as 850 mb winds are
southwest turning west to northwest today with speeds under 15
kts. Surface winds today much lighter than on Wednesday, mostly
under 10 kts. Limited cooling through at sfc-850 mb though with
this and add a favorable west wind into E ND/RRV and mostly
sunny sky high temperatures should be very similar to Wednesday
which over performed most guidance once again. Stuck with 1-3
degrees higher than strict NBM by blending in NBM75 for highs
today and net result was highs 83 to 88, highest in the central
RRV. With drier air moving into eastern ND RH values will drop
this afternoon in the 27-33 percent range Baudette to Fargo and
west, but lack of surface winds preclude any near critical fire
weather messaging for NW MN. Something to monitor as we get thru
the day to see if RH values drop lower or winds are a tad
higher than fcst, with far NW MN and northern RRV more prime for
this potential.
Sfc trough Bemidji to Fergus Falls this mid afternoon and models
indicate some chance for few showers or even a t-storm east of
it for a brief period 22z-00z so do have a low pop for this in
the grids for late today and it matches up with WFO DLH.
High pressure moves thru this evening and drops southeast by
Friday morning. Mainly clear sky anticipated, exception through
may be far northeast ND near Manitoba border overnight Thu night
as short wave moves from NE Montana into southwest Manitoba
along a slowly advancing stronger cold front. Some showers are
anticipated with this feature but higher chances remain in far
NW ND, far SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba, with small chance
skirting the ND/MB border late tonight into Friday morning.
Friday will see 850 mb temps start to climb as 500 mb trough
and upper low moves toward Las Vegas Friday evening. South winds
will pick up again and forecast area will be in the warm sector
as cold front is anticipated to remain just northwest of the
fcst area thru Friday evening. Highs Friday could reach near 90
in parts of the Red River valley. Record values for 10/3 are
quite high into the low 90s so likely not breaking them. But hot
enough.
Much cooler airmass behind this system for next week. Depending
on position of high pressure and sky cover for Tuesday
night/early Wednesday a majority of the fcst area to see
frost/freeze conditions.
...Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk Saturday late aftn/eve...
Friday night into Saturday all depends on movement of cold front
gradually southeastward and position of the 500 mb low as it
starts to move northeast into eastern ND by 12z Sunday.
Expecting a deepening surface low as well Saturday and into
Saturday night from central SD into southeast ND. While moisture
will be limited as not a favorable flow from the Gulf, heating
of the day Saturday to near 90 in the warm sector and forecast
of 1500-1800 j/kg MUCAPE esp central RRV and northwest MN along
with forecast 0-6 km bulk shear well over 40 kts near the cold
front would support potential for storm development late
Saturday afternoon with depending on capping issues a few storms
just near the front may be able to break cap and be severe. SPC
has a marginal risk near and just ahead of the front for late
Saturday aftn/eve. As low moves northeast....a band of heavy
rain is likely just west of the 500 mb low track Saturday
afternoon into Sunday....with heaviest rainfall potential of 1.5
to 2 inches looks to run Bismarck area into northeast ND (west
and north of Grand Forks) and into Winnipeg region. This subject
for further chances based on track of all the systems. 00z ECMWF
EFI indicates indicate 90th percentile for QPF 00z Sun to 00z
Mon period in FGF forecast area (more so northeast ND).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Few mid level CU in NW MN today, otherwise a pretty clear sky
today into tonight. Light winds all areas under 10 kts,
direction should change from light south to light west-southwest
as a weak trough moves east today.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rafferty/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion