440 FXUS66 KPDT 030517 AFDPDTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1017 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.AVIATION...
Precipitation chances decrease with time this evening. RDM is the only terminal still receiving light rain and visibility has been above 6 miles with VFR ceilings as well even there. Look for chances of rain to fall quickly after 6z. Redevelopment of showers on Friday afternoon look more relegated to the higher terrain and isolated at best in those areas. Prevailing northwest surface winds will be light overnight (3-7 knots) before afternoon boundary layer heating and mixing and pressure gradient increases surface winds to breezy at DLS (15-24 kts). Russell/71
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 126 PM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025/
DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
1. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms today.
2. Cooler conditions through the weekend.
3. Cold morning temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.
Current radar and visible satellite imagery showing spotty, light returns along the Blue Mountains and the east slopes of the Cascades under mostly cloudy skies. This is in response to an upper level trough and associated cold front stalling along the coast. The deepening offshore trough and erosion of the ridge to our east will promote the potential for isolated afternoon thunderstorms across areas of Central Oregon and the Blue Mountains/Foothills. The HREF advertises 100-200 J/kg of surface CAPE, low level shear of 50-55kts, and lapse rates of around 6/km. These parameters do suggest the potential for isolated, discrete storm cells to form, but should stay brief and sub-severe (
NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion