Big Torch Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

069
FXUS62 KKEY 261440
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A pleasant morning has been ongoing in the Florida Keys. KBYX was
previously detecting weak isolated showers across the coastal
waters, but a majority of that activity has diminished. This
morning`s 12z KKEY sounding revealed we are in a drier atmosphere
and MIMIC Precipitable Water agrees that we are in a "dry" slot,
though 1.7 inches of PWAT isn`t by any means dry. Temperatures
across the island chain are currently in the mid 80s, and coupled
with the light winds and limited cloud coverage, those will
continue to warm into the day. For the remainder of the day,
things will remain mostly quiet, though a cloud line could develop
over the Lower Keys producing a waterspout or two and isolated
showers. Winds will remain light and variable through the
afternoon. Due to the possibility of cloud line development this
afternoon 20% PoPs seems appropriate and therefore no updates were
needed to this package update.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light and variable
breezes will persist through tonight while the pressure gradient
remains weak. On Saturday, a weak tropical wave, currently located
over Hispaniola, is forecast to move northwest towards the
Bahamas. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS
will move close enough to steer the developing low and support its
development east of the Florida Keys. Impacts for the Florida
Keys are expected to be moderate northwesterly breezes and
northeasterly swells along the Upper Keys.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. A cloud line could develop later this afternoon producing
light showers over the island chain but for the time being no
mention of VCSH is necessary. Near surface winds will be light
and mostly variable.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion