Bess, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

971
FXUS64 KBMX 021723
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
Water vapor imagery this evening reveals a trough draped along
the eastern seaboard and an upper ridge quickly building in behind
it. This upper level ridging/increased subsidence will help keep
us dry in the short term. While chances are very low, we *could*
see a rogue shower or two across our far southern areas as a H7
vort max ridges around the southern periphery of a mid level high
pressure. Forecast soundings hint at a thin layer of moisture
around H7 but also show a large pocket of dry air just below. With
that said, the dry air will likely win out and we will remain
rain-free.
Otherwise, temps on Thursday will warm into the low to mid 80s for
most. Our eastern border may not break out of the upper 70s as a
weak wedge flow setup develops.  An influx of drier air Thursday
evening into Friday morning will allow temps to fall into the mid
50s for the northern half of the CWA.
95/Castillo
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
Dry conditions remain in place as we wrap up the work week. By
Sunday, a trough moving across the Plains will begin to nudge the
ridge east, allowing a coastal low the opportunity to lift towards
the Northern Gulf coast. The exact placement of the low will
determine who is lucky enough to receive some much needed
rainfall. For now, we will continue with low to moderate chances
across our southern areas Sunday into early next week as a plume
of healthy moisture looks to accompany the coastal low. This low
looks to quickly shift west/wash out as an Atlantic high
strengthens. This will keep an east-southeasterly flow in place
across the region. Will continue with low chance of diurnally
driven rain through mid week as sufficient moisture lingers
around.
Despite increased rain chances late this weekend and into next week,
most of us will remain dry. Dry conditions and warm temps with highs
in the mid 80s will likely result in worsening of our ongoing
moderate to severe drought. The recent monthly drought outlook
doesn`t look good for us with additional drought development
likely.
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond.
Winds will remain out of the east, with gusts up to 20kts during
the daylight hours.
32/JDavis
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry. MinRH values should fall into
the low to mid 30s for many areas this afternoon. No significant
moisture return is expected until late weekend and into early next
week with low rain chances by Sunday afternoon. Because of this,
drought conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion
possible given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    56  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  59  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  59  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      58  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      59  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        60  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...32/JDavis

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion