Berclair, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

668
FXUS64 KCRP 280526
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Seasonal weather with low-end chances for showers across the
coastal waters today.
- Increase in moisture and low chances(20-30%) for rain in the
   latter-half of the week, especially along the coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The upper-level trough that brought last week`s rain chances and
this weeks drier continues to fill over the Southeast US. Over the
western Gulf at the base at the trough and in the mid-levels, a vort
max will slowly loose steam as it meanders over the waters today,
ever so slightly retrogading to the west. This will result in low
chances (generally maxing out near 15% PoPs) over the waters of the
Middle Texas Coast. Concerns for any showers that do develop to move
inland will remain low as PWATs also will be climatoligcally low
(even with the increase of PWATs to as high as 1.5" this afternoon).
We remain in a relatively quieter pattern through mid-week before
another shortwave aloft overs head from Thursday, providing for a
more east/southeasterly surface wind, increasing dewpoints across
the region (with the re-emgergence of a Moderate Heat Risk Wednesday
and Thursday) and also increasing rain chances along the Coastal
Plains associated with daytime convective processes and interactions
with the afternoon seabreeze. Chances still generally range 20-30%
for this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions across South Texas throughout the TAF period. There`s
very low chance for patchy fog at ALI in the morning but have left
out of TAFs as none of the guidance picks up on it. Winds will be
light and variable overnight followed by north/northeasterly winds
in the morning, increasing to around 10-12 knots in the afternoon
with occasional gusts to 15-20 knots, veering southeasterly by
evening at less than 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Winds today will be primarily out of the northeast a a moderate to
fresh (BF 4-5) strength with 2-3 ft. These will northeasterly winds
weaken gradually through Tuesday before becoming variable Wednesday
and Thursday with seas decreasing to 1-2 ft. From Friday, winds will
again be predominately from the northeast at a moderate to fresh
strength with seas increasing to 3-4 ft. Rain chances will be low
across the western Gulf waters today (10-20% chances). Chances for
daily showers/storms increase from Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  70  89  70 /   0   0  10   0
Victoria          91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            93  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             91  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          90  72  90  72 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           93  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        89  66  90  67 /  10   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       86  76  87  76 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...BF/80

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion