Bent, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

821
FXUS64 KEPZ 061759
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1159 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1158 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the
   week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday
   with some locally heavy rain possible, favoring northern and
   eastern areas.
-  Drier conditions for late in the week before moisture returns
   for the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Models are actually in fairly good agreement with the main
synoptic features over the next week. For going into mid October,
it is not as progressive as you would think, in fact, it`s
stagnant with a mean ridge setting up across the central US with a
trough/upper low over the east and west coasts. The EPZ CWA will
be mainly in the southwest flow area of this while at the surface
an area of high pressure will be over the Upper Midwest with ridge
axis extending into the area which will bring east to southeast
winds and an influx of moisture. The moisture starts pushing in
tonight with some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible east
of the Rio Grande. Increasing mid and high clouds will keep
overnight lows above last night for much of the CWA except in the
Gila region.
For Tue, southeast winds pick up across the entire area with dew
points getting into the lower to mid 50s. Models showing nice
shear around with 0-6km values getting into the 35-45KT range,
instability will be minimal with most areas not getting much above
300-500J/kg with a fairly low level cap around 800mb that may keep
convection from firing up in the afternoon besides over the Sacs.
As we move into the overnight hours, there will be some lift
moving in from the south due to convection over Mexico. There will
still be some elevated instability around and with some weak mid
level flow above a modest ESE low level flow. Some training of
storms is possible with slower storm motion with storm chances
almost all areas with the focus east of the Divide. Best chances
look to be in Sierra and northern Otero counties. CAMs are all
showing some QPF bullseyes of 1-4" somewhere in these areas. So
flash flooding could be a concern. With the shear present, some
small hail and gusty winds are also possible, but the limiting
factor will be the instability. A similar setup for Wednesday but
with the focus shifting mainly north as more stable air pushes
into the southern zones. Temperatures will be cooling somewhat
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s common over the lowlands.
If lower clouds don`t burn off in the morning, could be even
cooler, but think MET numbers are a little too cool with only a
10-15 degree diurnal range.
The area will become more under the influence of upper high
building around the Big Bend area and push best moisture west and
north towards the end of the week. We will see some warming again
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s by Fri/Sat.
Going into the weekend and early next week, models continue to
advertise some remnant tropical moisture moving up in a couple of
surges as one trough lifts out of the west coast and another moves
in to replace it. This will bring back rain chances to the region,
mainly focused out west Sat/Sun with first push, but then going
into early next week, a more widespread chance for rain moves in
as a fairly deep NE/SW oriented trough digs into the Great Basin.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 developing for most of the area
through the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening will be focused
around the Sacramento Mountains, but after 04Z, there will be some
SHRA/-TSRA developing around the RGV. Confidence in this
developing at any terminal is low, but KLRU and KELP could see
some activity going into the early morning hours. Winds will be
light from the south early on but shift around to the northeast to
east at 5-15KTS over night and through the morning Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Low level moisture will be moving in over the next 24-48 hours
which will raise min RH`s into the 30s/40s by Wednesday. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
Wednesday with the main focus in the mountains northern and
eastern areas. Some locally heavy rain is possible, especially Tue
night. Drier air, but with RH`s still above 20-25%, will return by
the end of the week with temperatures warming back into the mid
80s to lower 90s. More moisture will start to push back in with
remnant tropical moisture moving in from the eastern Pacific this
weekend and especially early next week. Winds will be breezy to
occasionally windy starting Tuesday night and continuing through
Friday from the southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  87  67  82 /  20  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            59  82  58  77 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               60  82  60  77 /  20  20  30  20
Alamogordo               60  82  57  79 /  20  20  30  20
Cloudcroft               43  57  41  56 /  20  40  40  30
Truth or Consequences    56  80  57  75 /  20  20  40  30
Silver City              49  79  54  72 /   0  10  20  30
Deming                   59  85  62  81 /  10  10  30  20
Lordsburg                58  86  62  79 /   0  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       67  85  66  80 /  20  20  20  10
Dell City                60  84  60  78 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Hancock             65  88  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               59  77  58  73 /  10  20  20  10
Fabens                   63  87  64  82 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             63  84  64  80 /  20  20  20  10
White Sands HQ           62  82  62  79 /  20  20  30  20
Jornada Range            61  82  59  77 /  20  20  30  20
Hatch                    59  85  60  80 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus                 62  87  64  82 /  10  10  20  10
Orogrande                61  80  59  77 /  20  20  30  10
Mayhill                  48  66  46  65 /  20  40  40  30
Mescalero                48  69  46  68 /  20  40  50  30
Timberon                 45  66  45  64 /  20  30  30  20
Winston                  44  74  47  69 /  10  20  30  30
Hillsboro                54  80  54  76 /  10  20  40  30
Spaceport                56  81  57  76 /  20  20  40  20
Lake Roberts             33  79  50  73 /   0  10  30  30
Hurley                   51  81  55  74 /  10  10  20  20
Cliff                    43  85  57  81 /   0  10  20  20
Mule Creek               37  84  54  78 /   0  10  10  20
Faywood                  56  80  56  74 /  10  10  30  30
Animas                   58  87  60  81 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  58  86  60  79 /  10  10  20  20
Antelope Wells           57  87  59  81 /   0  10  10  10
Cloverdale               57  83  57  77 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion