928 FXUS63 KDDC 022244 AFDDDCArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 544 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions expected through Saturday.
- Unseasonably warm through the weekend.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
WV imagery indicates an upper level ridge axis extending northeast from the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is situated across extreme southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.
Dry and very warm conditions are forecast early in the period as the SREF shows ridging aloft continuing to amplify northeast through the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas tonight with the ridge axis then shifting eastward into the Central Plains Friday. Considering a fairly weak flow aloft combined with very little instability present, precip chances will remain absent across southwest/central Kansas through Saturday night.
A trend of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue tonight and Saturday with little change to the general air mass across western Kansas. With the HREF indicating a 60 to 80% probability of temperatures dropping below 60F in west central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas to a 60 to 80% probability of temperatures slipping below 65F in south central Kansas, expect lows mainly in the 50s(F) out west to the lower 60s(F) east. For Friday, the HREF paints a 70 to 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in south central Kansas to that same probability of temperatures topping 90F in extreme southwest Kansas. So look for widespread afternoon highs pushing the upper 80s(F) to 90F. Similar temperatures are expected Saturday.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions prevail for all terminals through early Friday evening. Winds be rather light tonight, only 5-10 knots, out of the south and southeast direction. Into Friday afternoon, winds increase, remaining southerly, 15-20 knots, with gusts 25-30 knots.
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.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Bennett
NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion