Bear Creek, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

099
FXUS63 KGRB 270748
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
248 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An extended period of low-impact weather is forecast through
  Friday. Above average temperatures are expected during this
  time, with the best chance of highs reaching or exceeding 80
  degrees occurring today and Monday.
- Patchy fog and low clouds expected early this morning.
- Patchy frost possible in north-central Wisconsin late tonight
  into early Sunday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Patchy fog and low clouds this morning, mainly across central,
east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore, will erode with sunrise.
The fog should be low impact as widespread visibility restrictions
to 1/4 of a mile is not expected.
A cold front will track through the area today, only denoted by a
narrow band of clouds as there will be a dearth of moisture in the
atmosphere according to model and upstream soundings. Temperatures
ahead of the front will rise appreciably across the area,
especially south of north-central Wisconsin where highs around 80
are expected across much of central, east-central, and northeast
Wisconsin.
Behind the cold front light winds and clear skies will allow for
quite a bit of radiational cooling tonight. This will likely lead
to patchy frost across much of north-central Wisconsin where lows
in the middle 30s are anticipated into early Sunday morning.
After slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold
front, Monday could once again hit 80 degrees across much of the
region with the best chances (40-70%) across central and east-
central Wisconsin. Another cold front will push through the area
Monday night, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the region.
Despite the cooler temperatures, it will still be above normal for
this time of year. High pressure will keep the weather dry for the
rest of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Aviation forecast focus continues to revolve around the potential
for low ceilings and fog tonight. A band of low clouds, currently
situated between 2000-3500 ft over east-central WI, continues
linger late this evening, but have finally started erode over past
hour. These clouds lead to below normal confidence regarding fog
potential overnight.
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the start
of the period for most terminals. However, as we head into the
07-09Z time frame, there is a potential for IFR visibilities and
LIFR ceilings to develop. Confidence is highest from MFI to Y50,
which is the corridor with most support from model guidance.
Confidence is lower over the central and east-central WI TAF
sites due to either increasing southwest winds late (AUW/CWA) or
pre-existing clouds (GRB, ATW, MTW). Stuck with continuity for
those terminals, as the forecast was already conservative to
begin with. MTW and CWA continue to have the greatest potential
for a brief period of LIFR flight conditions. SFC WNDS will be
light and variable initially, becoming SW at 3-5 KT overnight.
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Any fog or low stratus is expected to burn off between 13Z and
15Z (8-10 am local time), with conditions improving to VFR across
all terminals. As a cold front moves through the region during
the afternoon, a period of SCT to BKN low clouds between 2500-4000
ft AGL is possible, which may result in brief MVFR cigs. SFC WNDS
will become W/NW at 10-15 KT with some gusts possible behind the
frontal passage. No significant aviation hazards are expected
during the afternoon. Most terminals will see SKC sky conditions
return by 21Z Sat thru 03z Sun.
OUTLOOK...
No significant weather events impacting aviation are anticipated
for Sunday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion