Bayway, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS64 KHGX 171144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Seasonably hot temperatures with a daily risk of isolated to
  widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of
  the week.
- Rain and storm chances increase by the weekend and into early
  next week as the pattern changes.
- At the coasts, water levels remain above tidal norms, though
  should decrease somewhat as the week progresses.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Through Friday, expect highs generally in the low/mid 90s with a
daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Many locations will remain dry. But some of you
will experience a brief downpour and perhaps some thunder as well.
By the weekend, the mid/upper flow pattern begins to change as a
trough digs southward into north-central CONUS and progresses
southeastward towards the Midwest. Guidance suggests the
introduction of vort maxes aloft, which would tend to increase
lift, at least at the mesoscale level. Therefore, the
shower/thunderstorm chances generally increase somewhat as we head
into the weekend. Interestingly, guidance digs the trough axis
farther south as we head into early next week while also showing a
surge of PWAT. Some of the guidance even suggests the formation of
a cut-off low over Texas. Uncertainty in the pattern is a little
too high to go aggressive on PoPs early next week. But are we are
indicating ~40-50 PoPs for Monday and ~40-60 PoPs for Tuesday of
next week. Worth mentioning that high PWATs coupled with a
mid/upper trough or low could set the region up for heavy showers
and thunderstorms early next week. Time will tell.
Temperatures remain toasty through the weekend into early next
week. However, we do note a modest decrease in temperatures by
early next week due to the prospect of more clouds, showers, and
thunderstorms. Perhaps we can keep most of the region below 90 on
Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions prevail throughout most of the TAF period. Expect
generally light winds, mostly east to southeasterly this
afternoon. Chances for afternoon shower/thunderstorms are greater
than that of yesterday, with isolated storms most likely to occur
along the sea breeze near the Houston Metro area. Remaining
showers taper off in the evening with light variable winds
prevailing overnight. Brief, isolated fog will be possible again
Thursday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light to moderate east to southeast winds, 2-4 foot seas, and a
daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week. In
addition, water levels should remain above tidal norms. However,
the levels should slowly decrease as the week progresses. By early
next week, the pattern may become more unsettled, featuring
greater coverage of showers and storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  71  93  70 /  20   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  75  92  73 /  30  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  79  88  79 /  20  10  20  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion