Bay View, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

975
FXUS63 KMKX 051955
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers (40 to 80 percent) and a few thunderstorms are
  forecast later tonight into Monday night with a slow-moving
  cold frontal passage. The highest chances would be Monday
  night in far southeast Wisconsin.
- Gale Warning remains in effect for the northern one third of
  Lake Michigan open waters later this afternoon through this
  evening.
- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into early Monday
  morning for gusty south winds and building waves along Lake
  Michigan.
- Cooler, more seasonal and closer to normal temperatures
  return for the middle of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Tonight through Monday night:
Gusty south winds will linger into early this evening, as the
pressure gradient remains tight and low level mixing continues.
Gusts of 30 to 35 MPH are expected at times. The winds should
slowly weaken this evening and overnight, as the cold front
approaches from the northwest.
Models continue to bring the cold front southeast toward the
northwest parts of the area later tonight and through the area
on Monday, shifting southeast by Monday evening. Showers (40 to
60 percent chances) and a few storms should gradually weaken as
they shift southeast into northwest parts of the area later
tonight into Monday morning. A lull in the activity is then
expected Monday morning.
More showers (30 to 50 percent chances) and a few storms
develop in southeast parts of the area Monday afternoon and
shift southeast during the evening. The areal coverage of the
showers may be greatest Monday evening, which has the highest
forecast PoPs (40 to 80 percent) at this time.
However, there is not much upward vertical motion besides the
low level frontogenesis response and perhaps some upper
divergence to work with. Forecast soundings are showing just
enough moisture, and instability is fairly weak in the
southeast parts of the area Monday afternoon.
CAMs have scattered showers and some storms developing by later
Monday afternoon mainly around or just southeast of the Kenosha
County area. For now, will leave in the higher PoPs Monday
night in the southeast, but may need some adjustment downward
in later forecasts, depending on where the development occurs.
Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front tonight into
Monday, with 70s to near 80 degrees in southeast Wisconsin.
Temperatures should be in the 60s behind the front on Monday.
Cold air advection on weakening north to northwest winds Monday
night should bring in more seasonable temperatures.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Tuesday through Sunday:
Generally west northwest flow at 500 mb is anticipated across
the region for the middle to later portions of the week per
cluster analysis forecasts, with positive anomalies over most of
the north central parts of the country. Strong high pressure
should shift slowly east across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday night and Thursday, which should bring dry conditions
and temperatures closer to seasonal normal values.
Ensembles are suggesting above normal temperatures returning to
the region later in the week and into next weekend, as a 500 mb
ridge axis shifts into the region. The signal for precipitation
during this period is weak, so the current small chances (20
percent or so) for showers later in the week may not
materialize.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
South winds will continue into early this evening, with gusts
up to 25 to 28 knots at times. The south winds may turn more
south southeast along the Lake Michigan shore, though the south
winds should linger at Sheboygan, Milwaukee and Kenosha.
South winds will linger this evening ahead of the approaching
cold front, with low level wind shear conditions expected with
2000 foot AGL winds from the south southwest around 40 to 45
knots. Winds will weaken and shift northwest to north Monday, as
the front moves southeast through the area.
Showers and a few storms should gradually weaken as they shift
southeast into northwest parts of the area later tonight into
Monday morning. A lull in the activity is then expected,
before more showers and a few storms develop in southeast parts
of the area Monday afternoon and shift southeast during the
evening. May see locally reduced visibility values with any
showers and storms. A period of ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet
AGL may occur Monday with the frontal passage.
Wood
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Gusty south winds are expected across Lake Michigan into
tonight, as strengthening low pressure around 29.3 inches moves
northeast into Ontario. The strongest winds will be across the
northern third of the open waters, where gale force gusts are
expected. A Gale Warning remains in effect for this area.
Otherwise, the rest of the lake will see southerly gusts up to
30 knots into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan into tonight, for gusty
south winds and building waves.
Winds are expected to shift to the southwest and gradually weaken
into early Monday morning, ahead of an approaching cold front.
A northerly wind shift is expected through the day Monday behind the
cold front, and is expected to push south of Lake Michigan by
Monday night. High pressure around 30.4 inches should quickly
build in behind the cold front for Tuesday into Wednesday,
bringing light winds.
Wood
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 2 AM Monday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 AM Monday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Monday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion