Bath, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

569
FXUS62 KMHX 251131
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over Eastern NC from the
northeast through today before a low pressure system moves in
from the west late week. As we get into next week we will be
monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Humberto and Invest 94L.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 7:25 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
- Low stratus and patchy fog possible through 8-9 AM
- Above normal temperatures today with coastal plain heat
   indices ranging from 95-100
- Chance of isolated to scattered showers and strong thunderstorms
   this afternoon and evening
Latest satellite imagery shows low stratus and fog across much of
the area but obs have started to show improvement over the past
hour. Fog should mix out and low stratus should lift by 8-9 AM.
Increasing low-level thicknesses and southwesterly flow will
generate above normal temperatures today with heat indices
around 90 at the beaches and 95-100 across the coastal plain.
Heating of a moist boundary layer will generate 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along
the seabreeze and although there`s enough instability for some
of these storms to become strong, a lack of shear will minimize
the severe threat. A surface trough will move east out of
central NC later today but isn`t expected to reach ENC until
after peak heating. With the boundary layer becoming more stable
and low-level lapse rates increasing by the time this better
forcing arrives, the threat for damaging wind gusts will be
decreasing. There`s potential for some thunderstorms to
progress farther east faster than forecast, and these storms
would be better candidates for stronger gusts. PWATs will
increase to nearly 2", which could result in heavy rainfall at
times (especially within stronger storms), but the risk of
flooding is low given how dry the area has been lately.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:00 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
- Another round of fog and low stratus possible
Slight chance PoPs will remain in the forecast overnight as coastal
troughing lingers over the area and upper troughing and a
surface cold front approach from the west. Lows will be very
mild for this time of year, only dipping to the low-70s area
wide.
Fog and low stratus are on the table again tonight with those
who receive rain today being some of the most likely candidates.
Given that winds are not forecast to decouple, dense fog should
not be widespread.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled pattern is expected across ENC through early next week
- Monitoring the evolution of Invest 94L and TS Humberto over the
next several days for any indirect or direct impacts to ENC next
week
There remains average to above average confidence in the large scale
upper level pattern through Sat/Sun with lower confidence later in
the period towards early next week. As a result, have leaned on more
of the ensemble and AI guidance later in the forecast period in
order to focus on the overall pattern, and hash out specifics as we
get closer to next week. Biggest challenge in the long term will be
the eventual track of Invest 94L and TS Humberto.
Friday and Saturday...Positively tilted upper level trough stretching
from the Interior Northeast to the Deep South will slowly push
E`wards Fri eventually taking on a more neutral to slightly negative
tilt and cutting off from the upper level flow somewhere around the
Tennessee River Valley or Southeast. The exact track and strength of
this upper low will potentially have a part in the track of Invest
94L later in the weekend and early next week but will get into that
below. Will note, still a fair amount of uncertainty with the exact
track and speed of this upper low. At the surface, cold front will
continue to approach from the west and eventually stall near the
coast Fri night and remain over the area through Sat. This will
likely promote periods of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across ENC. While not expecting severe weather, could
see training storms and therefore a low end (15% or less) chance at
excessive rainfall. With PWATs up around 1.5-2.0 inches rain could
become heavy at times promoting a risk for heavy/excessive rainfall
and WPC has the area under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
excessive rainfall Fri/Sat. Think Sat has the better chance to see
isolated flash flooding if we get a fair amount of rain on Fri. High
temps in the 80s Fri/Sat with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Sunday into midweek next week...Higher than avg uncertainty expected
in the forecast from Sun onwards given very complicated upper level
pattern around the Eastern Seaboard which leads into the big
question which is what will happen with Invest 94L and TS Humberto
early next week. Will go over the upper level pattern and
challenges and then potential solutions below.
Upper level cutoff low will meander around the Southeast and
Tennessee River Valley through early next week. Have followed recent
trends in the AI and ECWMF ensemble guidance which shows the upper
low pushing NE`wards early next week and exiting out to sea by
midweek as another trough dives SE`wards from the Canadian Maritimes
and provides an escape route for this upper low out ahead of an
upper level ridge to the west which will be approaching at the end
of the period. Key challenge here will be the eventual track of the
upper low as models notoriously have a hard time handling this type
of pattern and this low could have an impact on the eventual track
of Invest 94L. Otherwise temps stay about or just below avg through
the remainder of the long term given expected ample cloud cover and
widespread precip.
At the surface, stalled front remains over the coast through early
next week before dissipating keeping things unsettled through at
least Tue with daily chances for showers and storms across the
region. Strong high pressure ridging begins to build down across the
region as well on Tue/Wed from the north and west. At the same time
TS Humberto and Invest 94L look to be tracking NW to N on Sun and
Mon with Invest 94L potentially getting organized enough after it
departs Hispaniola earlier in the weekend to develop into a TD/TS
around the Bahamas. TS Humberto looks to continue off to the north
and eventually the NE closer to Bermuda as an upper trough leaves an
escape route for the system. The evolution of Invest 94L is where
the greatest uncertainty comes into play as multiple features will
play a role in the eventual track of the disturbance.
The first will be the speed in which Invest 94L develops. If the
system develops faster a quicker northward motion may occur with
greater impacts to the area, if slower development occurs more
interaction with TS Humberto is likely to occur limiting impacts
across ENC. The second will be the cutoff low in the Southeast which
if it moves far enough east could help to steer 94L closer to the
coast. Finally an incoming ridge of high pressure from the north
could block the escape route of both Humberto and 94L making the
forecast even more complicated. With this in mind and after taking a
look at the 00Z ensemble guidance it appears there will be three
possible solutions for early next week. The most likely as of right
now is that after 94L tracks across Hispaniola, it will gradually
develop on Mon/Tue into a TD/TS and begin interacting with TS
Humberto resulting in a rare phenomena called the Fujiwara effect.
With 94L likely being the weaker system at the time, TS Humberto
will flex its muscles on the disturbance creating an area of
enhanced wind shear over 94L keeping the system weak as well as
allowing 94L to attempt to circle around Humberto thus keeping both
systems out to sea and resulting in more indirect impacts to ENC.
The second solution which is currently less likely is that 94L
develops faster and the cut off low to its west is closer to the
coast allowing for less impact from Humberto and thus allowing for a
stronger system that moves more N/NW than NE and brings more direct
impacts to the area. Finally the least likely solution is that
Hispaniola disturbs the low level center of 94L enough to result in
no formation and TS Humberto remaining well out to sea. Given the
continued vast differences in the forecast make sure you continue to
stay weather aware this week and be on the lookout for further
updates.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Friday/...
As of 7:30 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
   evening
- Fog and low stratus possible again tonight
Fog and low stratus are covering much of the coastal plain but
obs have shown improvement over the past hour. All fog should
mix out by 12/13z with scattered low- to mid- level clouds
lingering through the rest of the day. There`s better potential
for today`s seabreeze to be active, but confidence was not high
enough to include in the TAFs at this time. This evening, a
surface trough will approach from the west and could produce
strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty winds. PGV and
ISO have the best chance at seeing sub-VFR conditions from this
convection. Another round of fog and low stratus will be
possible tonight but the boundary layer should remain mixed
enough to once again preclude widespread dense fog.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
-Unsettled pattern starting on Friday will bring unfavorable flying
conditions to ENC into early next week.
A cold front is forecast to track E`wards across ENC on Fri and
eventually stall across the region Fri evening near the coast. This
front will then move little through early next week. As a result,
will likely see an extended period with a higher likelihood of sub-
VFR conditions across ENC as scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms develop across the area. Ceilings and vis will likely
be reduced within any rain and thunderstorm activity while outside
of this activity periods of VFR may be found between precip chances.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 3:20 AM Thursday...
Key Messages
- Increasing southerly winds today
Southerly winds will increase from 5-10 kt this morning to
15-20 kt by this afternoon/evening. It`s possible for a few
gusts to reach 25 kt later today, especially over the sounds and
the northern coastal waters, but obs are likely to be too
isolated to warrant a SCA. Seas will be 2-4 ft at 9-11 seconds
today with the period decreasing to 8-10 seconds tonight.
LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...
Key Message
-Deteriorating marine conditions expected as early as Sun/Mon
Cold front is expected to near our waters and eventually stall near
the coast Fri evening. This is forecast to bring a prolonged period
of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our area waters. A few
storms could be strong in nature resulting in locally enhanced winds
and seas. Otherwise, given the lighter gradient across the area,
forecast calls for 5-10 kt SW`rly winds across all waters on Fri
with 2-3 ft seas along our coastal waters. As we get into Sat seas
remain at 2-3 ft while the winds back to a SE to E`rly direction at
5-10 kts. As we get into Sun and Mon, high pressure ridge begins to
build in from the north and with Invest 94L and TS Humberto off to
the south and east expect the gradient to tighten some allowing
winds to gradually increase to 10-15 kts on Sun and then 15-25 kts
on Mon. Winds will gradually become NE`rly by Mon as well. At the
same time, seas across our coastal waters will build, with 3-5 ft
seas now forecast by Sun and then 4-6 ft seas by Mon. At the very
least this will begin our period of unsettled marine conditions with
at the bare minimum, SCA conditions currently forecast.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...OJC/RCF
MARINE...OJC/RCF

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion