Bascom, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

511
FXUS62 KTAE 291033
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
633 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Northeast flow will continue in the near term with scattered
clouds extending from Tropical Storm Imelda moving in from the
northeast. The storm may bring us some isolated to scattered
showers for this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will probably
be lower than NBM guidance due to the cloud cover lingering around
longer than typical forecast. PoPs for Monday range around 30-45
percent with higher values along the I-75 corridor and the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. Temperatures will be in the 80s and
near 90 along the immediate coast. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda will have started its sharp turn to the
east, pulling away the moisture and shutting off our rain chances
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Not a lot of activity for the day with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s. During the
day Wednesday, a cold front will move in from the northeast.
Surface high pressure will be building behind it.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The cold front is expected to stall over the waters. The large
building surface high against the stalled front over the waters
will create a tight pressure gradient which would bring us some
breezy conditions over the land and marine zones for this weekend.
Depending on where, exactly, the front stalls will determine our
rain chances for the end of the week. At the moment, the majority
of rainfall is expected to occur over the waters, however if the
front is settled a little further north, our coastal regions may
experience some showers and thunderstorms. PoPs are around 30-40
percent for areas along and south of I-10.
Temperatures for the latter half of the week are a bit "iffy".
They will depend on the setup of the surface high to our north.
Where the high is located could set the stage for cold air
damming, bringing us cooler air, with southerly moisture
advection. We could expect more cloudy conditions and possible
increase in showers. This could decrease temperatures for the
weekend. Deterministic NBM has max temperatures for this weekend
in the low to mid 80s; whereas the 10th percentile has max temps
in the upper 70s to low 80s, the 90th percentile has max
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows are pretty
steady in the mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Morning satellite imagery shows stratus with MVFR/IFR bases
moving west towards the Apalachicola and Flint rivers. Have this
area reflected in the TAFs at TLH/ABY/VLD and short term models
show this area to continue through 16-17Z. Low possibility that it
reaches DHN/ECP but will metwatch. VFR should return all
terminals this afternoon. Winds will continue from the northeast
with gusts to 20 knots through the afternoon. Another round of
stratus this evening and overnight will affect all terminals with
a mix of MVFR and IFR in the TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Northeast and easterly flow will be dominant for the next several
days as Tropical Storm Imelda off of the Florida Atlantic coast
will lift north then turn east out into the Atlantic. A cold front
is expected to follow from the northeast by Wednesday and stall
over the waters. Behind the front will be a strong surface high
which will create a tight pressure gradient increasing the winds.
Advisory level winds are expected as we approach the end of the
work week. There is a 10% chance that the easterly/northeasterly
flow may approach gale force gusts. As the synoptic system sets
up, we will have a better understanding of the potential winds and
keep the forecast updated.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Northeasterly transport winds will continue through the forecast
period with values peaking around 15-20 mph during the afternoons.
Rain chances will be minimal over the next several days, but an
isolated shower or thunderstorm is more likely for Monday
afternoon along and southeast of the I-10/I-75 corridors.
Dispersions for the regions will be moderate with perhaps a few
pockets of high dispersions in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
during the afternoons to go along with the elevated transport
winds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the region
through Tuesday, but significant rainfall is not expected.
Currently, the drought conditions and low flow on area rivers will
prevail. As we approach next weekend, there will be a backdoor
cold front that is expected to stall over the marine zones. If the
front stalls further north along the coast, then there will be
potential for heavy rainfall late this weekend along the coast.
Continue to follow the forecast as updates are made.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  69  85  67 /  20  10  10   0
Panama City   89  70  87  69 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        86  68  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        83  69  84  65 /  20  10   0   0
Valdosta      85  69  83  65 /  40  10  10   0
Cross City    88  70  86  67 /  40  10  10   0
Apalachicola  87  70  85  70 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion