Basco, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

391
FXUS63 KDVN 291851
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
151 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer than normal temperatures paired with quiet weather is
  expected through the rest of the work week.
- Models are trying to bring rain chances to the area by this
  weekend, but confidence in this occurring is low at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A blocky upper pattern will keep high pressure in control into
late week. This will mean a continuation of the unseasonably
warm conditions (ensemble temperature anomalies 15-25 degrees).
While we look to fall short of record highs on most days, we
could be close on a few, particularly tomorrow (see Climate
section below) and then again late in the week as the mid level
thermal ridge builds toward the region (main axis to extend from
the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest). One thing that
does look to change in the coming days is our skies in that we
should see more in the way of mid/high level cloudiness at
times (peaking Wed/Thu), as we get into a WAA pattern on the
backside of surface-850 hPa ridging. A deep dry sub-cloud layer
should preclude any measurable precipitation with at most a
few sprinkles the worst case for parts of the area Wed/Thu.
The opacity of the cloud cover will also modulate temperatures
particularly mid-week. Otherwise, we`ll continue to see some
large diurnal ranges day to day aided by the negative feedback
from the dry ground. Overall, highs in the 80s the rest
of the week with some lower 90s possible Tue and then again
late week paired with the dry weather has us certainly feeling
like late summer doldrums. Lows at night look to drop back into
the 50s/60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Models attempt to bring some rain chances into the picture
over the upcoming weekend. These rain chances are a result
of some upper level energy ejecting across the central CONUS,
while at the surface a boundary sags into the Upper Midwest
attendant to a shortwave traversing the Canadian Prairie.
Confidence remains low though with any rain prospects for our
neck of the woods, as the digging trough out west actually aids
in amplification of the ridge aloft enhancing general large
scale downward vertical motions. One thing is for certain is
that this will foster a continuation of well above normal
temperatures through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist through
the period as high pressure remains in control. Patchy ground
fog is possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning (10z-13z)
near rivers and other low-lying areas, but is not anticipated
to affect the terminals.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Record highs for September 30th...
Burlington, IA.........91 in 2023 and previous years
Cedar Rapids, IA.......94 in 2023
Dubuque, IA............89 in 1897
Moline, IL.............92 in 1952
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...08

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion