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195
FXUS64 KMEG 250440
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will traverse the Mid-
  South through this evening as a low pressure system pulls away
  from the region.
- Drier and much cooler air will filter in resulting in pleasant
  conditions for the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The latest surface analysis places a weak surface low over the
Missouri Bootheel with its parent upper level low on track for
the Great Lakes. Ample cloud coverage and proximity to the low
has limited thunder chances and severe weather. General
thunderstorms threatening heavy rainfall and frequent lightning
will persist for a few more hours before coverage eases.
The attendant cold front with the parent low will slowly traverse
ESE through Thursday afternoon. A few, isolated wrap-around
showers on the backside of the aforementioned surface low will be
the region`s best shot at additional rainfall on Thursday.
Mesoanalysis indicates a decent amount of CIN, suggesting limited
thunder chances. Despite lift from the front, thick cloud
coverage and sufficient CIN are expected to largely inhibit
destabilization, keeping thunderstorm coverage isolated at best
on Thursday with a very low threat for severe weather.
The weekend will kick off cooler and drier conditions with
temperatures running in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday
with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Morning lows will
be crisp as temperatures fall into the mid 50s to near
60 degrees. Areas in west Tennessee have a wide variety of
probabilities (NBM) of morning lows falling below 55 degrees on
Saturday morning, but the most notable include a 50-70% chance in
a corridor between Martin, TN and Clarksville as well as a
localized 60-80% chance near Bolivar, TN. Into next week, a
blocking pattern looks to set up trapping us between two areas of
low pressure. This should keep us on the dry sides of the system,
but this will allow for temperatures to creep back up to near
90 degrees by early next week.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
TSRA chances remain minimal overnight as convective instability
remains limited. Primary overnight impact will low MVFR/IFR
behind a cold front that is slowly sagging south.
The surface front will outpace the arrival of an upper level
trough, resulting in isolated daytime SHRA interspersed with
otherwise increasing CIGs during the day.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Over the past 72 hours, much of the Mid-South has received
beneficial rainfall of at least 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts. Saturated soils will squash fire weather concerns
for the near future. Dry conditions will return early next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion