Baker, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

046
FXUS64 KAMA 050538
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon
  through this evening across the central and northern Panhandles.
- Rain chances continue through Wednesday with the highest chances
  Monday night.
- Cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front Monday
  through Wednesday with the coolest highs on Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Breezy southerly winds will still be ongoing to start the day today.
In addition to the breezy winds, a warm start to the day is expected
with temperatures near sunrise around 5-10 degrees above average for
this time of year. With that being said, another hot October day is
forecast for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. Decent H700 theta-e advection is expected to set
up over the region this afternoon through this evening. Upper level
forcing will be not great, but highs reaching convective
temperatures along with subtle surface convergence may lead to
isolated thunderstorms by late this afternoon into this evening
across the central Panhandles. MLCAPE values are expected to range
from 1000 to 1500 J/kg and modest shear may lead to a few strong
to low end severe storms during this time frame. If any storms do
become severe, large hail up to quarters to potentially half
dollars and wind gusts up to 60-70 mph cannot be ruled out. The
severe threat should decrease after sunset but showers or storms
could persist across the northeast overnight which will be aided
by a LLJ upwards of 40-45 kts.
A cold front is expected to propel southward across the Plains
tonight into Monday as a southwest to northeast oriented trough
treks east across the Rockies. Where exactly the front sets up on
Monday varies in the model guidance, but in general it should be
somewhere over the CWA. This will very likely lead to quite the
temperature disparity across the region, with highs ranging from
the 60s to the northwest up to the upper 80s to the southeast.
Moisture is forecast to remain prevalent over the region and the
front will likely become a focal point for additional shower and
storm development Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Synoptic
support appears to be a bit better than today, so more coverage
of showers and storms is currently expected for Monday evening.
Even with coverage expected to be a bit more widespread, only
modest rainfall totals appear likely given the latest NBM
probabilities for exceeding a quarter inch of rain are only around
20-30 percent from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A cold front should be south of the forecast area by sunrise on
Tuesday morning. This will lead to north to northeasterly winds
during the day and a cooler airmass will be in place across the
Panhandles. In addition, rain chances will continue through the day
into the night on Tuesday with a continuous stream of Pacific and
Gulf of America moisture remaining over the region. Rain will likely
not be occurring all day, but off and on chances are possible at
this time. What will be in place over the Panhandles all day should
be persistent cloud cover. The cooler air mass and the cloud cover
should lead to temperatures below average for highs on Tuesday.
There is a wide range in ensemble guidance for highs, so have kept
the very likely warm NBM highs in the forecast for now, but would
not at all be surprised if highs come in at least 5-10 degrees
cooler than the current forecast.
The brief cool down does not appear like it will last long however,
as zonal flow on Wednesday quickly transitions back into a ridge
by late this week into next weekend. Just how much the ridge
builds over the Plains varies in the current guidance, but in
general temperatures should warm back up to above average heading
into next weekend. Before the ridge sets up, weak disturbances
embedded in the west to east flow may aid in developing additional
showers or storms on Wednesday into early Thursday before the
moisture stream gets pushed off to the west.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. LLWS upwards
of 40-50 kts is expected at each of the terminals through sunrise.
Winds will remain breezy to gusty for most of this TAF cycle with
gusts upwards of 20-30 kts out of the south. Winds will decrease
after 00z but should remain out of the south. There are low
chances for showers or storms at KAMA/KGUY starting near or
slightly before 00z, but confidence is not high enough to mention
in the TAFs at this time.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion