Bains, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

026
FXUS64 KLIX 301927
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
227 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and storm chances slowly increase late this week with
   better chances this weekend.
- Winds and seas will increase late this week and weekend leading
   to Small Craft Advisories expected.
- Minor coastal flooding along east facing showers of southeast
   LA, including inside the tidal lakes, and Hancock, MS county
   expected Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
In fear of sounding like a broken record it was another warm, dry,
and quiet day. Moisture has slowly increased with RH vales
generally remaining in the 40 to lower 50% range while highs still
climbed into the upper 80s and lower 90s. There was an increase
in cloud cover today compared to the last few but still didn`t see
the amount of high clouds move in that looked like it could`ve
been yesterday.
As for the forecast for the next few days not much has changed in
the previous thinking. The mid lvls will see quite a bit of changes
over the next week and that begins in earnest tomorrow. Some of the
key features that are controlling things continue to be our two
hurricanes in the western Atlantic both moving to the northeast now,
the broad mid lvl low over the sern CONUS trapped by the ridge over
the Great Lakes and OH Valley/Midwest, and the s/w moving through
the southern and central Plains. Imelda and Humberto will have no
impact on the region but the interaction between Imelda and the
broad mid lvl low over the sern CONUS will continue to have an
impact on the forecast through Thursday. As mentioned yesterday with
a slower track and development of Imelda it wasn`t able to move as
close to the US coast and now has had far more interaction with
Humberto allowing Humberto to basically carve out a path for Imelda
to escape over the Atlantic. It also didn`t force the mid lvl low to
take as much of a southwest jog towards the Lower MS Valley and
instead will move more towards the north-central/northeast Gulf
coast tomorrow and tomorrow night. At the same time the ridge over
the Great Lakes and Midwest has not slid as far east and is even
sliding back towards the Mid Ms Valley some. That is blocking the
s/w over the central/southern Plains. Part of the s/w will go north
and ride up over the ridge while some of it will surge east-
southeast over the Lower MS Valley tonight and early tomorrow. This
feature could have provided more than enough support to get some
rain across the area the problem though is there is really no
moisture available abv h7 and even the moisture that is in place is
confined to around the h85-h7 layer as the LL and boundary layer are
fairly dry as well. With that the area will likely remain rain free
tomorrow and highs will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s once
again.
Thursday things will continue to evolve. The Plains s/w will merge
with the mid lvl low/trough over the northeastern Gulf coast and by
Thursday night a broad closed mid lvl low is expected to develop.
This feature will be a primary driver of the forecast for Friday and
through much of the weekend but as for Thursday with it taking shape
later Thursday and farther to the east there is a good chance that
most of the area will remain rain free for another day. Rain chance
will increase across coastal areas as we slowly see a boundary set
up from coastal SELA east-southeast into the eastern Gulf and the FL
peninsula. More on that boundary in the extended. As mentioned we
will struggle to see much rain on thursday but one thing that could
begin Thursday and will become a bigger impact over the next few
days will be tides. Moderate to strong easterly winds will develop
over the northern Gulf and this will begin to drive water into the
LA coast but tides should remain below adv limits Thursday. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
As for the extended portion of the forecast, this gets a little more
active with some minor impacts expected, and finally higher rain
chances. The medium range models continue to be in fairly good
agreement with the overall pattern over the much of the CONUS. This
is the GFS, ECMWF, GEM, and their respective ensembles. However
there are some differences in the sfc and LL features that may have
some impacts Sunday. Overall confidence is high in some aspects of
the forecast however confidence is low on rain potential and that is
mainly amounts and coverage. With most of the guidance in fairly
good agreement but still low confidence on areal coverage of
rainfall the NBM this period looks pretty good and will make no
adjustments from it.
Synoptically the models have remained mostly consistent with a
closed mid lvl low over the Gulf coast states by Friday and it
retrograding west towards the northwestern Gulf coast and Lower MS
Valley by Saturday. It sits over that general area for another 24 to
36 hours before slowly filling early next week. That said the
location and depth of it will help some thing tighten up in the LL
and at the sfc. As mentioned early there will be this quasi
boundary/LL confluent area from south/near the SELA coast to the FL
peninsula. A large and dominate area of high pressure over the Mid
Atlantic/northeast CONUS will wedge all the way down towards the
Gulf coast while broad low pressure is in place over the southern
and southwestern Gulf. This will already setup a strengthening
easterly wind across the northern Gulf but with the added lift these
winds will continue to increase Friday and into Saturday. This will
transport moisture towards the area this weekend but also slightly
enhance the frontal like aspect across the northern Gulf. The
increase in winds along with the duration of the strong easterly
winds will begin to lead to some minor coastal flooding impacts
across east facing shores of SELA, the tidal lakes, and Hancock
county. Coastal Flood Adv will likely be needed Friday and through
the weekend for tides 1-2 ft abv normally dry land along the
immediate coast.
As for rain potential Friday it looks like rain again may be
confined mostly coastal areas. The mostly easterly winds Friday
won`t help to transport deeper moisture inland Friday but Saturday
and Sunday moisture may start to penetrate deeper inland. This may
be very dependent on any type of wave developing along that
boundary/confluent zone. If we start to get some buckle along that
area with an inverted trough beginning to develop (maybe even a weak
sfc low) that will have a much greater chance of bringing deeper
moisture and rain inland. That could also lead to some increase in
the coastal flood potential. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions continue for all terminals and will do so through
the fcst. Winds also continue to remain on the light side. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Offshore flow will continue for another 24hrs before winds veer
around out of the east-northeast and then east by Thursday. Winds
will also remain light for another 24hrs then slowly begin to
increase. With a large dominate area of high pressure over the
northeast and Mid Atlantic and broad weak low pressure over the
southern and southwestern Gulf a prolonged and strengthening
easterly wind will develop over the north-central and northeastern
Gulf starting Wednesday night and persisting into the weekend.
Moderate winds could develop as early as tomorrow night requiring
SCS headlines for portions of the coastal waters while SCY headlines
may be needed for the waters east of the MS Delta Thursday. Winds
will likely be a solid 20 kts Thursday night and maybe approaching
25 kts. Seas will be increasing as well with the outer waters south
and east of the MS Delta increasing to 6-8` and given the prolonged
strong easterly flow may even be more like 7-9/10` in the outer
waters Friday and Saturday. Storms will also start to increase in
coverage over the coastal waters Thursday and persist through the
weekend. As we get deeper into the weekend there is some uncertainty
as a weak area of low pressure may try to slowly take shape along an
boundary/area of low lvl convergence draped across the central/north-
central Gulf. Not only would this have an impact on wind strength
and direction but will also increase the showers and thunderstorms
/CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  90  67  88 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  67  92  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
ASD  67  89  66  86 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  74  91  74  88 /   0  10  10  30
GPT  70  87  69  86 /   0  20  10  20
PQL  67  88  64  87 /   0  20  10  20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion