Avoca, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

633
FXUS64 KSJT 200443
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1143 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
  the first half of next week.
- Temperatures trend hotter this weekend into Monday, then
  should be cooler by Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Quiet weather will persist in the short term. May see an isolated
shower develop in the Big Country this afternoon but most areas
will remain dry. On Saturday, a weak upper level disturbance
tracking across north Texas may result in an isolated shower or
thunderstorm in the afternoon mainly north of the I-20 corridor.
Otherwise, highs will be in the lower to mid 90s under partly
cloudy skies. Morning lows will be in the 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An embedded disturbance will move across the northern Texas late
Saturday. This may be enough to support a low chance for an
isolated rain shower or thunderstorm on Saturday evening through
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will largely be limited to
areas near the I-20 corridor and northward given the track of
this disturbance.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate a
low pressure system developing across the Plains. However, the GFS
keeps the low centered further to the north, which will limit
rain chances given the track of the low pressure center. Given the
differences in model tracks and how much the low intensifies, it
seems reasonable to keep rain chances (around 20%) limited for
next week given the uncertainty. This may change if higher levels
of consistency are seen in future model runs. Regardless, what
seems most likely is we see a weak cold frontal boundary move into
the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Slightly cooler
temperatures will result, but highs will still remain in the upper
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours at the terminals. The wind
will be from the south and a little gusty Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  94  71  96 /   0  20  10  20
San Angelo  68  92  68  94 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    66  93  67  93 /   0  10   0  10
Brownwood   67  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
Sweetwater  71  94  71  97 /   0  10  10  20
Ozona       66  91  68  92 /   0  10  10  10
Brady       68  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...21

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion