Avila Beach, California Weather Forecast Discussion

436
FXUS66 KLOX 051639
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
939 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...05/927 AM.
A low pressure system over the West will keep cooler than normal
conditions in place through at least Wednesday. Light rain is
possible in Los Angeles County on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...05/938 AM.
***UPDATE***
No updates needed to the forecast this morning. Another morning of
minimal low clouds and fog. Expecting that to change in the next
couple days as forecast soundings continue to advertise a
strengthening marine inversion that will create a more favorable
environment for stratus development across coast and valleys.
Looking at the longer range forecast, there has been a shift
towards a slightly wetter solution for Friday, at least for LA
County, with moisture from Priscilla moving up the coast of Baja.
***From Previous Discussion***
Pretty benign weather on tap for the next three days. At the upper
levels a broad pos tilt trof today will spawn a weak cut off low
to the west of the Central coast on Monday. The low will not move
much and will remain around that location through Tuesday. Weak
flow at the sfc will occur all three days.
There are not too many marine layer low clouds this morning. By
dawn only western SBA county and the southern LA County coast will
likely wake up to low clouds. Low clouds will likely become more
widespread as the cyclonic turning aloft increases and the
inversion strengthens.
Most areas will warm up today as yesterday`s cooler airmass is
scoured out. Even with the warming, most max temps will end up 2
to 5 degrees blo normal. Not much change in the temps either
Monday or Tuesday as there will be little change in the over all
synoptic pattern.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...05/307 AM.
The upper low opens up and moves across the state on Wednesday.
This will bring an increase in low clouds which will likely cover
the vlys as well as the csts. Clearing will be slow in places.
Max temps will drop 2 to 4 degrees and will mostly be in the 70s
across the csts/vlys with a few lower 80s in the vlys.
SW flow develops over the state as humongous upper low approaches
WA/OR and Nrn CA. The effects the upper low will really not reach
Srn CA and there will be another day will lots of morning marine
layer clouds and well blo normal max temps.
Mdl agreement falls off rather abruptly for Friday and Saturday
as mdls struggle to assimilate the huge upper low which is moving
southward and a new tropical system coming up from the south. The
current forecast calls for a 10 to 20 percent chc of rain mostly
for LA county on Fri and Sat due to some solutions keeping the
tropical moisture more to the east. It will likely take more than
few more mdl runs to really pin the forecast for these two days
down. In the for what its worth department the ensemble blend
calls for 3 to 5 degrees of warming Friday and then 3 to 5 degrees
of cooling on Saturday, but this forecast will likely change over
the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION...05/1139Z.
At 1020Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1000 ft with a temperature of 19 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and
KWJF.
Low confidence in remainder of the TAFs with a 40 percent
chc of IFR/LIFR conds 13Z-16Z.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF with a 40 percent chc of BKN008 conds
through 16Z. Arrival time of low clouds aft this evening could be
any time 07Z-12Z. Good confidence that any east wind component
will be under 6 kt.
KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.
&&
.MARINE...05/922 AM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across the outer waters
and nearshore waters along the Central Coast have dropped off
earlier this morning. Some choppy, short-period waves may linger
through this afternoon, but winds will likely fall below SCA
criteria. Conditions are likely to remain below SCA criteria
through mid- week.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions
should generally remain below SCA criteria through the beginning
of the week. Then, there is a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds
Thursday and Friday evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion