Austonio, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS64 KHGX 182339
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Continued hot conditions w/ a daily risk of isolated to widely
  scattered showers and storms over the next few days.
- Pattern expected to become more active next week, with a better
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to appear on the
radar scope compliments of daytime heating. Look for more of the
same the next couple days along with temps continuing to run about
5F above seasonable norms.
Low level flow becomes more southeasterly later this weekend. As
such, we`ll see some deeper Gulf moisture begin making its way
back into the region. Corresponding rain chances will gradually
increase - first from the metro area southward on Sunday,
followed by the remainder of the region next week. Most activity
should be diurnally driven, though we`ll need to keep an eye
upstream for any embedded shortwaves in the nw flow aloft that
could potentially trigger tstm activity at off times. Deterministic
guidance is still pointing that direction, but timing/details are
a touch more inconsistent than what we were looking at in the 12z
runs yesterday. So, will continue to broadbrush the blended POPs
in the forecast for now until things get narrowed down. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Showers are expected to diminish gradually by sunset, leading to
a quiet night with light and variable winds. Some fog will be
possible near sunrise at KCXO and KLBX. Winds will pick up after
mid/late Friday morning, reaching speeds of 8 to 12 knots in the
afternoon. A few showers and storms will be possible in the
afternoon, but aren`t included in TAFs due to low confidence in
timing and coverage. Aside from a brief MVFR period due to fog
early in the morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the majority of this TAF cycle.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
East to southeast winds 7-15kt and 2-4 ft seas should continue
over the next several days along with a daily risk of isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. A more predominate southeast
wind direction will emerge later this weekend along with a gradual
increase in speeds, seas and rain chances into next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  94  70  94 /  30  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  73  94  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  79  89  79  88 /  10  20  10  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion