Austerlitz, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

271
FXUS61 KALY 021745
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually settle south of the area through
early next week, providing continued dry conditions with
temperatures warming above normal this weekend into early next
week. The next chance of rain is expected to arrive with a cold
front passage late Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will drift south across the area tonight,
bringing continued dry conditions and cool temperatures. Lows
will not be as cold as last night due to warming air mass and
some patchy mid/high level clouds drifting through, but there
could be patchy frost in some outlying/sheltered areas where
temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s. Not expected to be
widespread enough for any frost advisories though. Lows will be
in the lower 40s for lower elevations from around Albany south.
After a cool start, temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to
mid 70s Fri afternoon with a weak W/SW flow developing around
high pressure settling over the mid Atlantic region. Dry/clear
conditions expected again Fri night, although lows will be
closer to normal (mainly 40s) as the air mass continues to
modify. Patchy fog could be more prevalent as dewpoints look
slightly higher compared to prior nights.
Temperatures should warm well into the 70s to near 80F for most
valley locations Sat afternoon as an anomalously warm air mass
(850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) builds in with
a light SW breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
- High confidence in above normal temperatures through early
  next week.
- There is a 50-70% chance for greater than one half inch of
  rain across the region next Tuesday into Wednesday.
Discussion:
Above normal temperatures will be the main story Sunday through
early next week, as the anomalously warm air mass (850 mb
temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) remain in place.
Ridging both at the surface and aloft will prevail, so dry
conditions will also persist. There should still be fairly
large diurnal temperature ranges with a dry air mass in place.
The next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be in the Tue
night through Wed time frame, associated with a cold front
passage. Due to timing differences in the guidance will mention
likely PoPs at this time, although there is increasing
confidence for wetting rainfall with 24-hr NBM probabilities of
50-70% for > 0.50" rain across the region. This will be much
needed rain after another dry stretch.
Temperatures will cool down to more seasonable levels behind
the cold front by Thu, with drying conditions as well.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites through the TAF
period. Confidence is very low to include fog mention at KGFL in
the TAFs for tomorrow morning near sunrise as a light wind
could contribute to no fog development. Light and variable winds
continue through this evening, becoming calm again tonight into
tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Saturday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Webb

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion