Artesia, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

209
FXUS64 KJAN 230504 AAB
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mid evening satellite imagery showed the axis of a shortwave
trough axis east of Mississippi and local radars showed that
convection has already dissipated over the CWA. Therefore, no
additional convection is anticipated tonight. Guidance has some
probabilities of dense fog development across our southern zones.
Have included mention of patchy fog for ow with the update but
patchy dense fog development will need to be monitored toward
morning. Otherwise, another warmer than normal night is expected.
/22/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Through Tuesday: Increasingly unsettled upper level flow will be
the main driver of potential weather impacts over the first half
of the week. For now, that regime is focused just north and west
of our area in a corridor from the Southern Plains through the
Ohio Valley, where there have been rounds of convection as close
as the Little Rock-Memphis area. There is low, but nonzero,
potential for some of this activity to clip our southeast AR and
northwest MS counties this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon.
However, the western periphery of a low level ridge will main
enough influence to keep showers and storms more in the
isolated/summertime variety across most of our area through
Tuesday.
Midweek: The pattern will begin to shift beginning late Tuesday
as an upper trough builds from the Great Lakes region into the
Mid- MS Valley and Southern Rockies. This will organize a weak
cold front that will slowly push across the area late Wednesday
into Thursday. Ahead of the front, a couple rounds of convection
are possible as it pushes across our area. Current timing
expectations suggest a round of showers and storms reaching our
AR/north LA/northwest MS areas overnight Tuesday into Wednesday,
but with the nocturnal instability minimum it may be on a
weakening trend as it arrives. Redevelopment would then be
possible later in the day Wednesday for areas further south and
east. This does mean there is a real chance appreciable rainfall
will "skip over" some of our area Wednesday before redeveloping.
Given increased forcing along the front and marginally strong
deep layer shear, there is a marginal threat for severe storms on
Wednesday with potential shifting southeastward through the day.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Convection is expected
to be progressive enough to avoid a flash flood threat,
particularly given dry antecedent conditions. But on the high end,
one or two spots could pick up closer to 3-4" of rain. Most areas
will see much less. /DL/
Late week through the weekend: Going into Wednesday night and
Thursday, the threat for severe weather will end, but persistent
cyclonic flow associated with trough passage will support
additional rainfall. The trough will shift east and be followed by
dry and milder air as we go into the weekend. Temperatures will
be near typical values for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail for the entire period for all sites.
There will be lingering upper level cloud coverage at and above
20,000ft, with light mostly variable winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  73  89  70 /  10  10  70  80
Meridian      93  70  91  69 /  10  10  50  70
Vicksburg     93  73  88  69 /  10  10  80  70
Hattiesburg   95  72  94  72 /  10   0  40  60
Natchez       92  72  90  69 /  20  10  80  70
Greenville    92  72  83  67 /  20  30  90  50
Greenwood     93  72  84  68 /  20  30  80  70
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/EC/OAJ

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion