Ark, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

814
FXUS61 KAKQ 212350
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
750 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions tonight and Monday. A
warm up in temperatures from high pressure returns early next
week. Unsettled weather returns in the middle to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler tonight with lows in the in upper 50s inland and mid
  60s along the coast.
- Areas of fog possible tonight into Monday morning.
Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure off the New
England coast this evening, ridging SSW across the forecast
area. Temperatures as of 720 PM ranged from the upper 60 to
lower 70s for most under partly cloudy skies. A period of mostly
clear skies is possible this evening into early tonight inland,
allowing for radiational cooling to lower temps quickly given
calm winds inland. However, cloud cover is expected to increase
in coverage overnight from W to E inland and from NE to SW
across SE VA/NE NC due to status moving onshore. The level and
duration of clearing will determine how low our temps drop as
well as how widespread fog becomes tonight. Model guidance
continues to support areas of fog developing across the Piedmont
and spreading towards the I-95 corridor overnight into Mon
morning. The fog may reach the Northern Neck and Middle
Peninsula, however, confidence is low east of I-95. Locally
dense fog is possible, particularly across the Piedmont.
Additionally, overnight lows in the upper 50s inland to the mid
60s along the coast are expected. However, some localized
locations may drop into the mid 50s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler Monday then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure
  remains in the area.
The wedge of high pressure across the region will remain dominant
through Monday and continue to bring in a cooler, drier airmass.
Rain chances will be limited through Tuesday morning, with little
rainfall expected. A positively tilted trough will set up across
western/central Canada and the Plains by the start of the work week.
An upper low will start to develop across the Central U.S. by
Tuesday and slowly move eastward. This will help to displace the
surface ridge axis across the area to the south, which will allow
higher atmospheric moisture and warmer air to filter in across the
region. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s inland
and lower 80s near the coast. A cold front will extend from the NE
to the central US, but will likely remain to the north of the area
on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is a slight chance of
showers/storms Tuesday afternoon/evening in the piedmont and
northern counties. Expect lows Tuesday night in the mid 60s.
Wednesday`s temperatures will be similar to Tuesday in the mid 80s
for most (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore and northern counties).
The front will edge closer to the area by Wednesday, so have
maintained a chance of showers/thunderstorms during the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures are likely by the middle
  and end of the week.
An expansive ridge will set up off the SE coast during the week. The
upper low and associated trough will gradually advance eastwards
through the week and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
will return by the middle of the week. A surface front will move in
tandem with the trough, and more widespread rain is expected by
mid/late week as the front gradually moves through the area.
Atmospheric moisture content will between 1.5-2.0", and with the
front acting as a lifting mechanism, our area will likely see some
beneficial rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be in the
upper 70s Thursday through the weekend as a cooler airmass builds in
behind the front. Lows will drop into the 60s, with a few
communities (mainly in the piedmont) possibly seeing upper 50s by
the weekend. There is some uncertainty in exactly when the front
moves through the region, so we will continue to monitor any trends
and adjust the forecast as necessary.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Sunday...
Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure off the New
England coast this evening, ridging SSW across the forecast
area. A period of mostly clear skies is possible inland with
partly cloudy skies along the coast this evening into early
tonight. However, cloud cover is expected to increase in
coverage overnight from W to E inland (due to low stratus/fog)
and from NE to SW across SE VA/NE NC (due to status moving
onshore). Given the partial clearing and calm winds inland,
areas of fog and low-level stratus are expected to develop
overnight into Mon morning across the Piedmont to the I-95
corridor. As such, IFR/LIFR CIGs are possible across this area,
along with IFR/LIFR VIS due to the fog. Fog could be locally
dense at times. RIC will likely be on the edge of this cloud/fog
deck, and as such, confidence is moderate on whether or not RIC
drops to IFR VIS/CIGs overnight with the best chance around
10-13z Mon. However, IFR conditions could occur a few hours
earlier (~8z Mon). For PHF/ORF/ECG, the area of concern is the
stratus that has been lingering near the coast this evening with
~2000-2500 ft CIGs. Model guidance is split with some guidance
showing the stratus remaining mostly offshore whereas other
model guidance such as the NAM shows the stratus moving onshore
overnight with MVFR and even IFR CIGs possible. Given the low
confidence in IFR CIGs, have kept CIGs MVFR for those terminals
for now, however, IFR CIGs are possible and amendments may be
needed if obs begin to support IFR CIGs. Additionally, some
patchy ground fog is possible at PHF overnight into early Mon
morning. MVFR stratus may linger across SE VA/NE NC into Mon
afternoon. Otherwise, winds were E ~5 kt inland and NE 5-10 kt
along the coast (~10 kt at ECG) this evening. Winds become light
and variable/calm inland overnight, remaining NE ~5 kt along
the coast. NE winds increase to 5-10 kt Mon.
Outlook: Another round of fog is possible Monday night into
Tuesday morning with degraded flying conditions possible due to
VIS and/or CIGs. Unsettled weather is expected late week with
possible sub-VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure builds N of the region this evening into tonight
  as a trough develops off the North Carolina Coast resulting
  in a strengthening northeast wind.
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Atlantic coastal
  waters, mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound.
- There is a high rip current risk for Monday and Tuesday.
This afternoon, high pressure (~1030 mb) is centered near or just
off the New England coast. Meanwhile, an inverted trough has
developed off the NC coast. NE winds are generally running around 15
to 20 knots (gusts to 25 knots) over the ocean and ~10 to 15 knots
elsewhere. Seas have increased from earlier today and now 5 to 6
feet across the southern waters and 4 to 5 feet further north. Winds
will continue to gust 20 to 25 knots into this evening, before
gradually diminishing later tonight as the pressure gradient begins
to relax. SCAs remain in effect for the Currituck Sound through this
evening, the mouth of the Ches. Bay through tonight, and the
Atlantic coastal waters through Monday as seas will be slow to
subside.
High pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday through the
middle of the week. This will result in largely benign and sub-SCA
conditions. However, TS Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane
as it curves N and NE to the E of Bermuda. This could result in 3 to
4 feet seas persisting through midweek. Forecast confidence is
rather low by later this week, particularly with respect to how far
S a backdoor cold front reaches as another high builds into New
England, before lifting back to the N ahead of a cold front
approaching from the NW. Regardless, most guidance depicts sub-SCA
conditions regardless of the forecast details.
A high rip current risk is forecast for Monday mainly due to long
period swell (3-4ft/11-12s) from TS Gabrielle (forecast to be
Hurricane Gabrielle). Long period swell continues into Tuesday, with
Tuesday expected to be another high rip current risk day.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide anomalies have increased to around +1 foot across the northern
Chesapeake Bay this afternoon, resulting in areas of nuisance to
locally minor flooding (Bishops Head MD). While tidal anomalies are
currently diminishing, another round of nuisance to locally minor
flooding is possible at high tide tonight around the area of Bishops
Head MD. Water levels remain elevated over the northern Bay into
early this week, with additional rounds of nuisance tidal flooding
remaining possible.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SW
NEAR TERM...RMM/NB
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...AC/KMC/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion