Almora, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

339
FXUS63 KFGF 301951
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
251 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue this week with
  record highs possible in some areas on Thursday. Increased
  shower chances this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...Synopsis...
Southwesterly flow aloft continues as upper ridging over the
Midwest moves east. Water vapor loop shows a fairly vigorous
shortwave lifting through western SD, and several other weaker
vorts surrounding it. One of those in central ND is starting to
produce some showers, and there is enough instability for some
lightning to get going, but shear is negligible and not
expecting anything severe. These showers and weak thunderstorms
should start to move into our eastern ND side tonight, although
CAMs have it a bit later than seems to be happening. Will
continue to keep low POPs going, and any impacts look to be
minor with a few hundredths of rain and isolated lightning.
Southerly winds at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will
continue into tomorrow and Thursday, with another shortwave
expected to come through Wednesday night. High heights and warm
temps will continue for the next few days, before a shortwave
coming over the top of the ridge Friday starts to knock things
down a bit and brings a frontal boundary. Large temperature
spread with clouds and precip as well as the front coming down.
However, even the cooler side of the front will be above
seasonal averages for Friday and Saturday before the main upper
trough digs in Sunday. More seasonable readings for the start of
next week.
...Near record warmth Thursday...
Expecting less cloud cover for Thursday than today or Wednesday
as the main shortwaves move off to the east. Probabilities for
highs 85 and above are 40 percent or higher for large portions
of our CWA south of the Highway 2 corridor. Thus, continued the
previous shift`s trend of adding in the NBM 75th percentile to
highs. Less certain about breaking Fargo`s record of 90 degrees
as probabilities for above that mark are 30 percent, but high
confidence in at least 20 degrees above seasonal averages and
records that are in the mid to upper 80s will be under threat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions with mainly high clouds. Some shower activity
this afternoon and again possible tonight, but chances are low
at any one airport so will keep out of the TAFs for now. Winds
will be the main concern with southeasterly at 10 to 15 kts this
afternoon picking up to 15 to 20 kts with gusts close to 30 kts
by tomorrow morning.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion