Allison, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS64 KAMA 300441
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Mid-80 to low-90 high temperatures, around 10 degrees above
normal, is expected from Wednesday through at least Friday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Satellite water vapor products show a trough is pushing into western
Texas this evening, and will continue to push off to the east. Some
weak-but-just-enough lift as well as favorable 700mb theta-e
advection could lead to some light rain to continue to develop
across the central and eastern Panhandles through the night.
However, the low-level dry air that was sampled in the 00z AMA
sounding should prevent the rain from reaching the surface.
Therefore, will leave the PoPs to less than 10% at this time.
Clouds will clear from west to east throughout the day on Tuesday
and temperatures will warm into the 80s across the Panhandles.
Another shortwave trough is expected to move across the central
Plains Tuesday night, but not expecting rain at this time. A ridge
will build over the Panhandles on Wednesday as temperatures warm
into the mid-80s to low-90s across the area.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
An upper-level ridge will build over the Great Plains in advance of
a trough that enters through the west coast. Temperatures will warm
further as a result with upper-80s to low-90s expected to be
widespread across the Panhandles on Thursday and Friday.
Model guidance differs regarding the track and speed of the
aforementioned trough leading to uncertainties regarding the weather
that will be experienced as we move into this coming weekend. The
most likely scenario among operational and ensemble guidance at this
time is that the weather system`s track will favor the Panhandles
getting dry slotted. This would mean warm temperatures and
dry/breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday... and perhaps into
Sunday.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
Winds will increase to around 15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts
at KDHT and KGUY during the day before weakening some in the
evening.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion