Alleyton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

282
FXUS64 KHGX 181110
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Continued hot conditions w/ a daily risk of isolated to widely
  scattered showers and storms over the next few days.
- Pattern expected to become more active next week, with a better
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Expect a continuation of the isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the next few days with highs generally in
the low to mid 90s. Like previous days, many of you will remain
dry. But the lucky few will be blessed with a downpour and some
thunder. In terms of general concepts, there hasn`t been much of
change in the model guidance regarding next week`s weather. But
once you dig into the details, you`ll find run-to-run variation
regarding mid/upper level features. How far south will a deep
layer troughing extend? Will there be a cut-off low of some sort?
And what are the exact timing of these features? Regardless of the
uncertain answers, one thing we can say is that the signals still
point to a more unsettled pattern early next week, thus the
increasing PoPs this weekend and especially by Monday and beyond.
The potential increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage and cloud
cover suggests less hot temperatures as well. But the chosen blend
in our temperatures grids still shows highs around 90 next week.
Not exactly fall- like...
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Some patchy fog has developed at CXO this morning, but this should
dissipate within the next hour or so as the sun rises. Then,
another day of VFR conditions and southeasterly winds of 6-10kt
is expected. There is a slight chance of showers and storms this
afternoon/early evening, with the greatest chances south of I-10.
The storms today are expected to be isolated, so the likelihood
of a storm developing over a terminal is low and thus have opted
to continue the PROB30s for IAH and terminals southwards. And
while a storm may not directly impact a terminal, outflow winds
may result in brief gustier, more variable winds. Once the sun
sets, activity is expected to wane. VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the night for most areas, but could see some
patchy fog again at CXO.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and 2 to 4
foot seas are expected over the next several days. Winds and seas
may increase somewhat early next week. A daily risk of isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
weekend. There is potential for a more unsettled pattern early
next week, featuring higher shower and thunderstorm coverage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  70  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  92  73  92  73 /  30   0  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  79  88  79 /  20   0  10  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion