Alabaster, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

374
FXUS64 KBMX 051852
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
152 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
The radar is still clear across C AL, but that is about to change,
at least a little with some shortwave activity. High pressure is
centered just off of the VA coast extending WWD into E Conus with
ERLY flow into AL today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at
times with a tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge.
20-40% pops finally are making a return this afternoon as overall
moisture begins to slowly increase. Although a few showers (can`t
totally rule out a tstorm) may be noted (highest chances SRN
counties), QPF amounts are not high and will not make much of a
dent in the ongoing drought. High temps will be warm through the
short term with no major airmass changes expected yet. Overnight
lows will be mild as well with extra cloud cover and rain at
times.
08
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
No major changes were made in the extended forecast. Guidance
continues to indicate a low to moderate chance of showers and
tstorms as moisture gradually increases ahead of a surface front.
The front is expected to move into the area on Wed and provide a
little focus, but overall moisture will be limited and rainfall
amounts are expected to be light. Temperatures will moderate
upward for the first part of the week (thru Wed) ahead of the
front with E-ESE meager onshore flow. Starting Thu, lower readings
begin to sneak into the area with a welcome cool down for next
weekend behind the front.
08
Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
By Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area,
maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central
counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Tuesday through Wednesday,
although increased cloud cover could work to hold down temps to the
low 80s. A slight cool down is expected toward the end of the
week, with upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday. Slight rain
chances are currently forecast for areas east of I-65 on Thursday
afternoon, subject to change.
Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain
chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt
emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of
the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint,
drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen,
through next week.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MVFR cigs will continue for a couple more hours for many of the
TAF sites. We should have VFR cigs for the latter half of the
afternoon and through the evening. MVFR cigs should redevelop and
work their way NWD across C AL generally after 6z and persist
through the remainder of the 24 hour forecast. Tight gradients
continue for much of this forecast and will allow for a few gusts
at times (15-22kt). SHRA will occur at times as moisture
increases. Mentions in TAFs start at 21z and spread NW/NWD into
Mon. The exception will be ASN. Chances are too low to mention at
this time.
Note: AMD NOT SKED will be appended to the KEET TAF while comms
issues persist.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A 20-40% rain chance will be in the forecast this afternoon into
Monday. However, widespread wetting rains are not expected. Any
rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the worsening
drought. RH values should remain above 50% each afternoon through
mid week. Winds this afternoon will be generally easterly at up to
12-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly
discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  82  65  86 /  20  20  10  20
Anniston    67  81  66  84 /  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  69  83  69  86 /  30  30  10  20
Tuscaloosa  70  85  70  87 /  40  40  20  20
Calera      68  85  68  88 /  30  30  10  10
Auburn      68  82  66  85 /  30  20  10  10
Montgomery  70  86  68  88 /  40  30  20  10
Troy        67  84  66  86 /  40  30  20  10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08/12
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion