Ackerly, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

664
FXUS64 KMAF 181814
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
114 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Low rain chances (10-30%) continue in the higher terrain and in
  Southeast New Mexico through Saturday.
- Summer-like temperatures return Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Water vapor imagery continues to show an upper-level trough sitting
over the Great Plains this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak front has
stalled north of our viewing area. While this front is forecast to
at least near the area tonight, it is expected to wash out as it
approaches our northern counties and have little effect on our
weather. Thus, besides some low (10-20%) rain chances in our
northern zones, the majority of shower and thunderstorm activity is
once again expected in and around the higher terrain (10-30%
chances). Rain chances tomorrow look similar to today`s, with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast from
the Davis Mountains north into Southeast New Mexico (10-30%), the
product of upslope flow and weak pulses in the northwesterly flow
aloft.
Temperatures remain consistent with those of the previous few days.
Highs top out in the upper 80s and low 90s for most today and
tomorrow. Meanwhile lows in the 60s are anticipated areawide,
except for 50s in the higher terrain and 70s along the Rio Grande.
However, we are still anticipating a warming trend to commence
during the Long Term Period...
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Saturday`s forecast is pretty similar to that of the Short Term
Period. Temperatures top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, and the
best rain chances (10-30%) will be in the Davis Mountains.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the far
northeastern Permian Basin due to a passing shortwave, but
chances look pretty low overall (10-20%). Sunday is a different
story. Ridging aloft in northern Mexico begins to amplify, and our
surface winds take on a westerly/southwesterly downsloping
component. As a result, summer-like temperature make a
reappearance across our region Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are
expected to top out in the mid to upper 90s for most locations,
with some 100s forecast in parts of the Pecos and Rio Grande river
valleys. The downsloping winds will also help dry us out a little
more, so rain chances through Monday afternoon are negligible.
There still remains a good deal of inconsistency in the models as to
how next week (after Monday) will play out. An upper-level trough is
expected enter the Plains by Tuesday. However, models disagree on
the strength, positioning, and speed of the system. Deterministic
and ensemble European model guidance has tended to bring the system
farther south and be less progressive than the GEFS and
deterministic GFS (especially the newest run of the GFS). Thus, it
remains to be seen if the trough will usher in more seasonable
temperatures (which is what the Euro wants to do), or if we will
miss out and remain 8-12 degrees above normal. Stay tuned for
updates!
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Have included a PROB30 at
CNM this afternoon and evening for TS. Additional shower and
thunderstorm development is possible near FST and PEQ this
afternoon, but confidence was too low to include mention in the TAF
at this time (15% chance). Otherwise, southeasterly winds (with
occasional light gusts) persist at all sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  91  66  92 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 65  88  66  90 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                   68  91  69  93 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            66  90  68  92 /   0  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           62  79  62  82 /  20  30  20  20
Hobbs                    63  87  63  88 /  10  10  20  10
Marfa                    58  83  58  84 /  20  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     67  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   66  89  68  90 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     66  90  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion