Flomot, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS64 KLUB 172244
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
544 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
   mainly over the far southern Panhandle.
- Better chances for showers and storms arrive over most of the
   region Thursday through Friday, with slight chances continuing
   over the weekend.
- Mild temperatures persist through the rest of the work week
   with warmer than average highs expected this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Widely isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
the afternoon across the far southern Texas Panhandle. Some showers
that have developed were along a surface boundary extending from a
surface low currently over the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma
Panhandle. Additional activity is possible this evening through the
overnight as a shortwave trough moves over the Texas Panhandle. This
will help push mountain induced convection across New Mexico and
Colorado into the Panhandle. Most activity should be confined to the
Panhandle, though a storm or two across the northern South Plains
and northern Rolling Plains cannot be ruled out. The main threat
from any storms that move into the FA will be heavy rainfall and
strong wind gusts. Convection should push into Oklahoma by sunrise
Thursday with a cold front following behind. Models are mixed on how
far south the front will push by Thursday afternoon, though many
models keep the front just north of the FA. The NAM does bring the
front southward into at least our northern zones by the afternoon
and does not appear to be far fetched. Despite the front, Thursday`s
highs will likely still be in the low to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Upper ridging is progged to move over the region by Friday and will
allow highs to warm slightly, back into the mid 80s to low 90s. A
series of shortwave upper troughs/weaknesses in the upper ridge will
allow for low-end storm chances this weekend. Most of the storms
will like form to our west across the higher terrain of New Mexico
and push eastward. Upper flow will be relatively weak and will keep
storm motion slow and will keep the best storm chances across our
western zones. The upper high will build across the western CONUS by
the late weekend into early next week. Upper flow will become more
northwesterly over the FA during this time as an upper shortwave/low
pushes southward from Saskatchewan into the Central Plains.
Unfortunately the current progged pattern would keep most convective
chances to our east, over Oklahoma, where the best upper diffluence
is located. The good news is a cold front should push into the
region providing us with more fall-like weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR and light winds will continue. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms at KCDS in the next few hours, however confidence
was not high enough to include in the TAF.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion